资源税制改革的双重红利——基于动态递归CGE模型的研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 06:59

本文选题：资源税改革　切入点：双重红利　出处：《经济管理》2015年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文构建动态递归CGE模型,分别采用不进行资源税改革(S1)、资源税改革但不实行资源补偿(S2)、资源税改革同时实行资源补偿(S3)三种政策场景,以煤炭为例,模拟分析资源税改革能否促进节能减排,同时保证经济增长和社会福利改善。即资源税改革是否存在双重红利。研究表明,在节能减排方面,资源税改革能有效降低污染物排放、单位GDP能耗和能源消耗总量,提高能源利用效率,当采用5%从价税率而不进行资源补偿时,节能减排效果最佳,有效抑制CO_2和SO_2排放,实现资源税改革第一重红利。而在第二重红利的实现上存在差异性,从短期看,资源税改革对经济增长影响较大,降低GDP增长,抑制开采业、工业、能源、运输业和农业等产业总产出,推升价格指数;但从长期看,当资源税改革同时实行资源补偿时,资源税改革对GDP增长影响相对较小,有利于社会福利改善。因此,资源税改革在改变计税方式时,应注重实施资源补偿,在节能减排基础上,确保经济稳定增长和社会福利改善。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the dynamic recursive CGE model is constructed, which adopts three kinds of policy scenarios: no resource tax reform, no resource tax reform, no resource compensation, and resource tax reform. Simulation analysis of whether resource tax reform can promote energy conservation and emission reduction while ensuring economic growth and social welfare improvement. That is, whether there is a double dividend in resource tax reform. Resource tax reform can effectively reduce pollutant emissions, energy consumption per unit GDP and total energy consumption, improve energy use efficiency. When 5% ad valorem tax rate is adopted without resources compensation, energy saving and emission reduction is the best, and CO_2 and SO_2 emissions are effectively suppressed. There are differences in the realization of the second dividend. In the short run, the resource tax reform has a great impact on economic growth, reduces the GDP growth, and inhibits the mining industry, industry and energy. The total output of industries, such as transportation and agriculture, pushes up the price index, but in the long run, when the resource tax reform implements resource compensation at the same time, the resource tax reform has a relatively small impact on GDP growth and is conducive to the improvement of social welfare. In the reform of resource tax, we should pay attention to the implementation of resource compensation, ensure stable economic growth and social welfare improvement on the basis of energy saving and emission reduction.
【作者单位】：东南大学经济管理学院;南京理工大学人文与社会科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“低碳经济下资源税费政策路径选择及其影响分析——基于动态多区域CGE的模型的研究”(71203002) 中国博士后基金面上项目“资源税改革对区域发展的异质性效应研究”(2013M540398)
【分类号】：F812.42;F224

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