我国传统零售业与网购关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 10:24

本文选题：网购　切入点：传统零售业　出处：《昆明理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着互联网技术的不断发展,网络购物已深入到社会生活的各个方面,对各个产业都造成了一定的影响。当下传统零售业之间的竞争愈演愈烈,网络购物对传统零售业的冲击正在加强。基于这样的背景,本研究从传统零售业与网购的发展现状出发,对传统零售业和网购的特点、发展模式和存在的问题进行了系统地分析,在定性地分析传统零售业和网购关系的基础上,利用模糊综合评价方法对消费者网购行为进行了定量分析,通过VAR模型对网购对传统零售业的冲击与影响进行了定量分析,根据研究结果对传统零售业和网购的发展提出了建议和对策,同时指出传统零售业与网络购物的融合已成为未来发展的趋势。首先,本文采用定性分析法,系统分析法,从传统零售业和网络购物的现状分析出发,比较和归纳二者的优劣势及网购对传统零售业的冲击与促进,导出二者融合的必要性。其次,本文运用定量分析法进行定量研究分析：应用模糊综合评价分析对我国网络购物影响因素进行综合评价,选取3个一级指标和13个二级指标,采用层次分析法来确定权重。在3个一级指标的比较中,专家认为网络信息的安全最为重要,占比高达76.87%,而网络零售商特性比消费者特征更为重要;13个二级指标中,个人隐私的安全性,网购的有用性及网站的可靠性是网购消费者最为看重的因素。在对模糊综合评价结果进行分析时,得出我国网络购物影响因素的“消费者特征”评价指标的评价结果为“良好”,属于E2级,而“网络信息安全”值标与“网络零售商特性”指标的评价结果都为“一般”,属于E3级。而对总体的综合评判为“一般”,属于E3级。基于VAR模型,采用协整分析,格兰杰因果分析及VEC模型方法(基于2005年至2013年的季度数据),对网购与我国传统零售业之间的长期关系及短期关系进行定量分析。研究结果表明,传统零售业销售额与网购成交额存在长期的正向协整关系,其长期弹性为0.20,人均可支配收入、网购成交额是传统零售业销售额的单向格兰杰原因。然而,短期内传统零售业销售额与网购成交额之间存在负向关系。脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析表明,居民人均可支配收入对传统零售业和网购的影响最大,而传统零售业对网购的冲击大于网购对传统零售业的冲击。最后,在定性分析与上述实证分析的基础上,论文得出发展传统零售业与网络购物融合发展的零售业模式,同时给出了相关的发展建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of Internet technology, online shopping has penetrated into all aspects of social life, have caused a certain impact on various industries. The traditional retail industry increasingly fierce competition, the impact of online shopping on the traditional retail industry is being strengthened. Based on this background, the current situation of this research from traditional retail and online shopping the characteristics of the traditional retail and online shopping, makes a systematic analysis of the development mode and existing problems, based on qualitative analysis of the traditional retail and online shopping on the relation of consumer online shopping behavior were analyzed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, through the VAR model for quantitative analysis of the online shopping to traditional retail the impact and influence, according to the research results and puts forward some suggestions and Countermeasures for the development of the traditional retail and online shopping, and points out that the traditional retail and online shopping. Integration has become a trend in the future.
First of all, this paper uses qualitative analysis and systematic analysis to analyze and compare the advantages and disadvantages of the two industries and the impact and promotion of online shopping on traditional retail industry from the analysis of the current situation of traditional retailing and online shopping, and to derive the necessity of the integration of the two.
Secondly, quantitative analysis is carried out by quantitative analysis in this paper.
The application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation analysis to evaluate the influencing factors of online shopping in China, selects 3 indexes and 13 level two indexes, using AHP to determine the weight. In the comparison of the 3 level indexes, experts believe that the network information security is the most important, accounting for up to 76.87%, and the Internet retailer characteristics than the characteristics of consumers is more important; the 13 level two indexes, the safety of personal privacy, reliability and usefulness of the online shopping website is the most important factor for online shopping consumers. In the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results are analyzed, the influence factors of China's online shopping "consumer characteristics evaluation index the evaluation result is" good ", which belongs to the E2 class, and the network information security evaluation standard and characteristics of online retailers" index results are "general", belongs to the class E3. The comprehensive evaluation of the overall sentence" General ", belong to the E3 level.
Based on the VAR model, using cointegration analysis and VEC causality analysis, Grainger model (data from 2005 to 2013 based on the quarterly), quantitative analysis of the long-term relationship between online shopping and traditional retail trade in our country and short-term relationships. The results show that the sales of online shopping and traditional retail turnover has a positive long-term cointegration relationship the long-term elasticity of 0.20, the per capita disposable income, online shopping turnover is one-way Grainger traditional retail sales. However, there is a negative relationship between sales and online shopping in the short term the traditional retail turnover. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis shows that the per capita disposable income of residents can affect the traditional retail industry and the largest online shopping, and the impact of the traditional retail industry on the impact of online shopping online shopping than traditional retail.
Finally, based on the qualitative analysis and the above empirical analysis, the paper draws the retail mode of developing the traditional retail business and online shopping integration development, and gives the related development proposals.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F724.2;F724.6

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