全球与中国银矿资源现状及白银需求定量预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 11:11

本文选题：银矿资源　切入点：灰色系统模型　出处：《中国地质大学（北京）》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：矿产资源一直是国家和地区经济发展的重要物质基础。2000年我国废除白银的“统购统销”政策，白银市场开放，近年来我国经济的快速发展导致白银需求旺盛。在白银需求量保持快速增长趋势的前提下，未来我国银矿资源能否支撑高速的经济增长成为重要的科学和社会问题。因此，在全球化背景下，正确认识全球银矿资源格局，，科学把握我国的银矿资源现状及发展趋势，有效建立白银需求定量预测模型，研究白银的消费需求特点及未来需求量，并对我国经济可持续发展提出相应对策和建议，具有重要的理论和实际意义。本文整理了大量数据文献资料，概括了全球银矿资源格局，及我国银矿资源的开发利用现状；在历史的消费数据基础上，根据差分自回归移动平均法ARIMA(p, d,q)和灰色预测法GM（1,1），分别对我国制造业白银需求进行建模和预测，进行对比预测研究；本文进一步采用ARIMA模型和情景分析法对全球白银制造业分消费领域的需求量进行了定量预测，并对我国银矿资源的发展提出了建议。本文主要取得以下成果：（1）全球银矿资源丰富，储量较为集中，目前全球白银供需基本平衡；我国银矿资源丰富，但以共伴生为主，资源禀赋较差，国内白银供不应求，依靠进口维持供需平衡。（2）通过对比研究，发现灰色系统模型GM（1,1）在少量样本数据预测方面优于时间序列模型，灰色预测模型更适合对我国白银需求作预测。（3）根据灰色预测模型对我国制造业白银需求量进行研究，结果显示，在未来一段时期内，白银需求量仍将保持上升的趋势；对全球制造业白银需求的定量预测结果显示，光伏产业在未来将会逐渐成为全球白银最大的消费领域，而摄影业受数码产品影响会逐渐衰退直到消失。
[Abstract]:Mineral resources have always been the important material basis for national and regional economic development. In 2000, China abolished the "unified purchase and marketing" policy of silver, and the silver market opened up. The rapid development of China's economy in recent years has led to the exuberant demand for silver. On the premise of maintaining the rapid growth trend of silver demand, it is an important scientific and social issue whether the silver resources in China can support the rapid economic growth in the future. Under the background of globalization, we should correctly understand the pattern of silver resources in the world, scientifically grasp the present situation and development trend of silver resources in China, effectively establish a quantitative forecasting model of silver demand, and study the characteristics of consumption demand and future demand of silver. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for sustainable economic development in China. Based on the historical consumption data, this paper summarizes the global pattern of silver resources and the present situation of the development and utilization of silver resources in China. According to the difference autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) method and the grey forecast method (GM1 / 1), the silver demand of manufacturing industry in China is modeled and forecasted, and the comparison and prediction are carried out. In this paper, ARIMA model and scenario analysis method are used to predict the demand of silver manufacturing industry in the field of consumption quantitatively, and some suggestions for the development of silver ore resources in China are put forward. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the world is rich in silver resources, and its reserves are relatively concentrated. At present, the global silver supply and demand are basically balanced; China is rich in silver resources, but mainly associated with them, with poor resource endowment, and domestic silver supply exceeds supply. Through comparative study, it is found that the grey system model GM1 / 1) is superior to the time series model in predicting a small number of sample data. Grey forecasting model is more suitable for forecasting silver demand in China. (3) according to grey forecasting model, the silver demand of manufacturing industry in China will be studied. The result shows that the silver demand will keep rising in the future. Quantitative forecasts of global silver demand in manufacturing suggest that the photovoltaic industry will gradually become the world's largest consumer of silver in the future, while photography will recede from digital products until it disappears.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F416.1

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