中国式影子银行对宏观经济的影响及政策建议

发布时间：2018-03-14 01:23

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：监管建议　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来,在我国传统的商业银行信贷融资业务受到限制的局面下,影子银行的规模呈现了爆发性地增长的态势。影子银行业务的发展能够通过提供非银行渠道信贷,助益于实体经济发展。然而,影子银行潜在的期限错配造成的流动性风险,违约风险和系统性风险因其在2008年所造成的严重金融危机,已经被各国金融监管机构所重视。2009年起,国外的金融监管机构纷纷对控制影子银行风险制定了一系列的监管措施并建立了新的监管体制。由于我国影子银行的兴起模式和特征与国外的影子银行有着较大的差异,研究中国式影子银行对宏观经济的影响机制将能够为认清影子银行的益处和风险打下基础,从而为我国监管机构更有效地监管影子银行体系提供合适的政策建议。本文采用理论推导和定量分析相结合的方法,在国内外学者研究的基础上较为全面地、系统地阐述了中国式影子银行的定义、特征及风险。并且从理论推导出发,阐述了影子银行对我国宏观经济的影响机制。为验证该影响机制,本文采用2006年—2013年的月度数据样本,建立VAR模型,对中国影子银行规模变化对于宏观经济中的货币供应量、利率、总产出和通货膨胀的变化进行实证分析。结果发现,影子银行规模变化通过影响货币供应量,从而导致了利率的下降、产出增加和实物价格上升的结果。最后本文从我国金融监管现状以及特色出发,阐述了我国监管机构对于影子银行监管面临的压力和困难,并从宏观和微观两个层面出发给出了对于影子银行监管的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, under the situation that the traditional commercial bank credit financing business in our country is restricted, the scale of shadow banking has shown an explosive growth trend. The development of shadow banking business can be achieved by providing non-bank channel credit. However, the liquidity risk, default risk and systemic risk caused by the potential maturities mismatch of shadow banks have been taken seriously by financial regulators in various countries since 2009 because of the serious financial crisis caused by them on 2008. Foreign financial regulators have established a series of supervision measures to control the risk of shadow banking and set up a new supervision system. The study of the impact mechanism of Chinese shadow banking on the macro economy will lay the foundation for a clear understanding of the benefits and risks of shadow banking. In order to provide appropriate policy recommendations for our country's supervision of shadow banking system more effectively. This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical derivation and quantitative analysis, on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' research, it is more comprehensive. This paper systematically expounds the definition, characteristics and risks of Chinese shadow banking, and from the theoretical derivation, expounds the influence mechanism of shadow banking on the macro economy of our country. Based on the monthly data samples from 2006 to 2013, this paper establishes VAR model to analyze the changes in the size of shadow banking in China for the change of money supply, interest rate, total output and inflation in the macro economy. The change of shadow banking scale affects the money supply, which leads to the decline of interest rate, the increase of output and the rise of real price. Finally, this paper starts from the current situation and characteristics of financial supervision in China. This paper expounds the pressure and difficulties faced by our country's regulators in the supervision of shadow banks, and puts forward some suggestions on the supervision of shadow banks from the macro and micro aspects.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3;F123.16

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