我国流通业发展和居民消费相互关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 18:40

本文选题：居民消费　切入点：流通增加值　出处：《统计与决策》2015年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章在对数据进行平稳性检验和协整分析的基础上,构建了关于改革开放至今我国居民消费支出、流通产业增加值和居民消费的3变量SVAR(2)模型。计量分析表明:我国改革开放以来的居民消费、流通增加值和居民收入序列具有协整关系;脉冲响应分析发现流通冲击对消费的影响绝大部分是正向的,在长期比较稳定,这从侧面说明了流通业的发展可以促进居民消费的增长;消费冲击对流通的影响也多呈现正向性,并且,消费冲击对流通的影响滞后于流通冲击对消费的影响,但总体看来,流通增加值和居民消费之间具有相互影响、相互促进的关系。方差分解显示:影响居民消费变化的主要还是居民收入,流通发展变化对消费的影响比较小,流通业发展对居民消费扩大的影响效应并没有充分发挥出来。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the stability test and cointegration analysis of the data, the article constructs a plan on the consumption expenditure of the residents of our country up to the present time of reform and opening up. The model of value added of circulation industry and resident consumption is a 3-variable SVAR2) model. The econometric analysis shows that there is a cointegration relationship between the value added of circulation and the series of residents' income in China since the reform and opening up. Impulse response analysis shows that the impact of circulation shock on consumption is mostly positive and stable in the long run, which shows that the development of circulation industry can promote the growth of consumption. The impact of consumption shock on circulation is also positive, and the impact of consumption shock on circulation lags behind the impact of circulation shock on consumption. Variance decomposition shows that the change of consumption is mainly affected by residents' income, the influence of circulation development on consumption is relatively small, and the effect of circulation development on the expansion of household consumption has not been brought into full play.
【作者单位】：河南科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金资助项目(11BJY112)
【分类号】：F724;F126.1;F224

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