合肥市商品住宅价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 06:46

本文选题：商品住宅价格　切入点：影响因素　出处：《安徽农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1998年福利分房制度取消以来,我国的房地产业得到迅速发展,目前已然成为我国的重要产业之一,不仅是支撑我国宏观经济的重要力量,而且也影响着千万家庭的生活。其中,商品住宅的价格在房地产市场的快速发展下不断攀升,甚至出现非理性的上涨。针对该类问题,政府出台一系列政策予以调控,以期控制房地产价格,尤其是商品住宅价格的过快上涨,维持房地产业的平稳理性发展,但结果并不如预期的理想。在度过房地产业“黄金十年”的今天,房地产市场正处于调整和优化的关键时点,对发展潜力、风险程度以及价格变化的关注,对未来房地产业进入“白银十年”的调整优化期的发展尤为重要。在此背景下,本文以合肥市为例,对商品住宅价格的载体—房地产市场的潜力及风险进行评估,对商品住宅价格的影响因素进行分析,并据此为研究区未来房地产市场的长效稳定发展提供建设性的建议。本文通过对国内外研究成果和我国房地产价格影响因素定性分析的梳理,以房地产价格中影响最广泛表现最敏感的商品住宅价格为切入点,首先分析研究区商品住宅价格变化的市场载体状况,并构建市场潜力与风险分析框架,分析作为价格载体的房地产市场未来的发展态势,同时采用灰色关联度、线性回归等方法对商品住宅价格的影响因素进行系统分析。结果表明,(1)合肥市房地产市场发展的利好因素多、价格不断上升、区域分化不断显现、市场发展潜力与风险并存,潜力大于风险,市场整体相对合理；(2)合肥市商品住宅成交价格与宏观经济层面指标的关联度较高,与需求性指标和价格层面指标的关联度次之,其中,与城镇居民人均可支配收入、货币供应量、城镇化率和土地价格呈正相关性,与新开工面积呈负相关性；(3)近些年,合肥市商品住宅的价格体系是在资金层面、城市发展及政府、开发商、银行等不同主体的决策和行为的共同影响下形成的。
[Abstract]:Since 1998 since the abolition of the welfare housing distribution system, China's real estate industry has been rapid development, has become one of the important industries of our country, is not only an important force of China's macro economy, but also affects the lives of tens of millions of families. Among them, the price of commercial housing in the rapid development of the real estate market continues to rise and even irrational rise. Aiming at the problem, the government promulgated a series of policies, in order to control the real estate prices, especially housing prices rise too fast, stable and maintain the rational development of the real estate industry, but the result is not as expected. The ideal throughout the real estate industry "gold for ten years" today, the real estate market is at a critical point of adjustment and optimization, development potential, the risk degree and concern for the future price changes, the real estate industry into "the adjustment and optimization of the silver ten years" Particularly important period of development. Under this background, this paper takes Hefei city as an example, evaluate the potential risk and carrier - the real estate market on the price of commercial housing, the influence factors of housing price are analyzed, and accordingly provides constructive suggestions for long-term stable development of the real estate market in the future in this paper. By qualitative analysis of the domestic and foreign research achievements and influence factors of real estate price in China combing with real estate prices in the most extensive influence performance of commercial housing price is the most sensitive point, the first analysis of the carrier market situation in the research area of commodity housing price changes, and construct the market potential and the risk analysis framework, as a development trend analysis the price of the real estate market in the future of the carrier, at the same time by using the grey correlation, the influence factors of commodity housing price regression results of system analysis. Ming, (1) the positive factors of Hefei real estate market development, rising prices, regional differentiation continue to appear, the development potential and market risk coexist, the potential is greater than the risk, the overall market is relatively reasonable; (2) associated with the transaction price and the macroeconomic level index of high degree of commercial housing in Hefei, associated with the demand index and price level index of the second degree, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the money supply, the rate of urbanization and land prices are positively correlated, negatively correlated with the new construction area; (3) in recent years, Hefei city commercial housing price system is in the capital level, city development and government. Developers, to form a common effect of different bank main decision-making and behavior under.

【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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