货币政策的房地产价格传导机制研究——基于SVAR的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-22 05:01

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《华中师范大学研究生学报》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文对2001年1月至2014年12月的宏观经济月度数据构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,分析了货币政策对房地产价格、房地产价格对实体经济的传导过程。研究发现,货币政策对房地产价格的反应强度大于房地产价格对实体经济的反应强度。其中,房地产价格与利率成同向波动、与货币供应量呈反向波动,利率对房地产价格的影响比较迅速,货币供给量的反应存在一定时滞,但总体影响略大于利率。房地产价格的变动导致了投资和消费的反向波动,反映出居民的挤出效应大于财富效应,房地产的投资存在一定的风险。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly macroeconomic data from January 2001 to December 2014, a structural vector autoregressive model is constructed in this paper, and the transmission process of monetary policy to real estate price and real estate economy is analyzed. The response of monetary policy to real estate prices is stronger than that of real estate prices to the real economy. Among them, real estate prices fluctuate in the same direction as interest rates and in reverse with the money supply. The effect of interest rate on real estate price is relatively rapid, and the response of money supply has a certain time lag, but the overall effect is slightly greater than interest rate. The change of real estate price leads to the reverse fluctuation of investment and consumption. This reflects that the crowding out effect of residents is greater than the wealth effect, and the investment of real estate has certain risks.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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