福建省经济—能源—环境（3E）系统协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 07:13

本文选题：3E系统　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《华侨大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源、经济和环境三者之间相互影响、相互制约，经济的快速增长，导致严重的环境污染和能源的大量消费和浪费，而环境污染与能源短缺又反过来制约经济增长；在目前发展模式下，福建省经济快速增长势必会加大对环境和能源的压力，同时经济增长也越来越受环境污染和能源短缺的约束。这就对未来福建省经济增长提出要求，要协调好经济、能源和环境三者之间的关系，做到既要保持经济增长，合理利用能源，又要保护好环境。本文以能源-经济-环境（3E）系统和系统论为基础，构建了福建省3E系统的系统动力学模型，并利用VENSIM软件对福建省3E系统的未来发展进行了仿真模拟，预测2013-2020年福建省3E系统发展趋势；然后根据模型检验结果与具体特征，针对系统动力学模型的核心参数构建多目标规划模型，并运用遗传算法对核心参数进行优化求解，将优化结果代入系统动力学模型进行再次模拟，寻求福建省3E系统协调发展路径，研究结果表明：第一，在现有的经济政策与能源消费结构下，2013-2020年，福建省经济增长的速度将有所减缓；第二，经济持续增长导致更为严重的环境污染和更大的能源缺口，环境污染和能源短缺反过来制约经济发展；通过对比两次模拟结果提出相应的经济和能源环境政策建议：第一，转变经济发展模式，向集约型增长模式转变；第二，增加对环境与能源的投入，，提高环境和能源投资占GDP比重；第三，加大科技投入，提高污染物处理能力和能源利用效率；第四，优化产业结构和能源消费结构。
[Abstract]:Energy, economy and environment affect each other, restrict each other, and the rapid growth of economy leads to serious environmental pollution and a large amount of energy consumption and waste, while environmental pollution and energy shortage in turn restrict economic growth. Under the current development model, Fujian's rapid economic growth will inevitably increase the pressure on the environment and energy, while economic growth is increasingly constrained by environmental pollution and energy shortage. This will require future economic growth in Fujian Province. It is necessary to coordinate the relationship among economy, energy and environment so as to maintain economic growth, make rational use of energy and protect the environment. Based on energy economy-environment 3E) system and system theory, this paper constructs the system dynamics model of 3e system in Fujian Province, and simulates the future development of 3e system in Fujian Province by using VENSIM software. The development trend of 3e system in Fujian Province from 2013 to 2020 is forecasted, and then, according to the model test results and specific characteristics, the multi-objective programming model is constructed for the core parameters of the system dynamics model, and the core parameters are optimized and solved by genetic algorithm. The optimization results are put into the system dynamics model to simulate again, and the coordinated development path of the 3e system in Fujian Province is sought. The results show that: first, under the existing economic policy and energy consumption structure, 2013-2020, The rate of economic growth in Fujian Province will be slowed down. Second, sustained economic growth will lead to more serious environmental pollution and greater energy gap, which in turn restricts economic development. By comparing the results of the two simulations, the corresponding economic and energy environment policy suggestions are put forward: first, to change the economic development model to the intensive growth model; second, to increase investment in the environment and energy. Increasing the proportion of environmental and energy investment in GDP; third, increasing scientific and technological investment to improve pollutant treatment capacity and energy use efficiency; fourth, optimizing industrial structure and energy consumption structure.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F124.5;F224

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