政策调整对我国房价的冲击效应研究——基于小波多分辨率分析与干预分析模型

发布时间：2018-03-31 14:34

本文选题：住房制度改革　切入点：房地产调控　出处：《审计与经济研究》2015年02期

【摘要】：借鉴货币最优政策模型,从机理上分析了房地产市场的变动规律,发现推动房价正常上涨的本质在于成本推动以及人口迁移下对住房的刚性需求,其他政策虽然短期内可调节房价波动,但长期过度使用会导致房价不可逆转的畸形。进一步基于小波多分辨率分析与干预分析模型讨论了我国政策冲击下的房地产市场发现:房价波动短期内会影响房地产销售,但长期内房地产销售不受房价波动影响,房价上涨与销售额增长均具有自身内在的推动力;政策调整对房价调控的冲击出现逆效性,短期内可以抑制房价上涨,长期内则会造成房价的更大波动。
[Abstract]:Based on the model of optimal monetary policy, this paper analyzes the changing law of real estate market from the mechanism, and finds that the essence of promoting the normal rise of house price lies in the cost promotion and the rigid demand for housing under the condition of population migration.Other policies can adjust house price volatility in the short term, but long-term overuse can lead to irreversibly abnormal house prices.Based on the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and intervention analysis model, this paper discusses the real estate market under the impact of policy in China. It is found that house price fluctuations will affect real estate sales in the short term, but real estate sales will not be affected by housing price fluctuations in the long run.Both the rise of house price and the increase of sales have their own internal driving force; the impact of policy adjustment on the regulation of house price is counterproductive, which can restrain the rise of house price in the short term and cause greater fluctuation of house price in the long run.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：西安交通大学人文社科类重点项目(SKZ2014011)
【分类号】：F299.23

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