基于SD的厦门市房地产动力机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 09:13

本文选题：系统动力学　切入点：房地产市场　出处：《华侨大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国房地产业作为国家支柱产业得到了蓬勃发展。但也产生了各地房地产市场呈现过热发展，房价持续上涨，投资需求旺盛，刚性需求由于过高的房价受到抑制等问题。为此，国家和地方相继出台了一系列的调控政策，但调控效果却不容乐观。为使房地产市场健康发展、调控更加合理，就必须对房地产市场的内在规律进行深入的研究。本论文的研究，就旨在探究房地产市场的内在动力机制及其客观发展规律，为房地产市场的健康发展提出有效的建议措施。本论文首先简述了近年来我国房地产市场以及厦门市住宅市场的发展情况。然后，以文献阅读法、房地产经济学理论等为基础，分析了房地产市场的主要动力因素。接着以房地产市场需求、供给、价格的形成原理及系统工程理论为基础，将房地产市场这个复杂的大系统划分为8个子系统。运用因果分析理论研究各个子系统内部动力因素之间的内在机理，以及各子系统之间的因果反馈机制，尤其是二手房市场和租赁市场对房地产市场的影响机理，并采用系统动力学因果回路图构建了整个房地产系统的因果反馈机制，从而剖析了房地产市场的内在动力机理。最后，以厦门市房地产市场2000年到2010年的历史数据为依据，运用计量经济学中随机时间序列预测方法对变量进行赋值，运用误差修正模型及EViews软件建模、仿真，建立动力学模型中各动力因素之间的经济数学模型。在确定动力因素的取值以及动力因素之间的定量函数关系的基础上，，采用Vensim PLE软件构建厦门市房地产市场系统动力学模型，模拟和仿真厦门市房地产业的发展轨迹，并与历史数据比较分析，以此论证了模型的正确性。本论文运用所建立的厦门市SD（System Dynamics，简称SD）模型，仿真模拟了2011年到2020年厦门市房地产市场的发展趋势。通过改变模型中政策变量的数值，仿真了不同调控政策的敏感度，分析了相关调控政策可能产生的效应，评估各调控政策的风险，为厦门市政府宏观调控房地产市场的发展提供及时科学的决策依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's real estate industry as a pillar industry has been booming.However, there are some problems such as overheated development of real estate market, rising house prices, strong investment demand and restraint of rigid demand due to excessive housing prices.To this end, the state and local has issued a series of regulatory policies, but the regulatory effect is not optimistic.In order to make the real estate market develop healthily and control more reasonably, it is necessary to deeply study the inherent law of the real estate market.The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal motive mechanism and objective development law of the real estate market, and to put forward effective suggestions for the healthy development of the real estate market.This paper firstly introduces the development of Chinese real estate market and Xiamen residential market in recent years.Then, based on the literature reading method and real estate economics theory, this paper analyzes the main driving factors of the real estate market.Then, based on the theory of real estate market demand, supply, price and system engineering, the complex large system of real estate market is divided into eight subsystems.Based on the theory of causality analysis, this paper studies the internal mechanism of dynamic factors in each subsystem, and the mechanism of causal feedback among subsystems, especially the influence mechanism of second-hand housing market and rental market on the real estate market.The causal feedback mechanism of the whole real estate system is constructed by using the system dynamics causality loop diagram, and the intrinsic dynamic mechanism of the real estate market is analyzed.Finally, based on the historical data of Xiamen real estate market from 2000 to 2010, using stochastic time series prediction method in econometrics to assign variables, error correction model and EViews software are used to model and simulate.The economic mathematical model between the dynamic factors in the dynamic model is established.On the basis of determining the value of dynamic factors and the quantitative functional relationship between dynamic factors, the system dynamics model of Xiamen real estate market is constructed by using Vensim PLE software, and the development track of Xiamen real estate industry is simulated and simulated.Compared with historical data, the model is proved to be correct.This paper simulates the development trend of Xiamen real estate market from 2011 to 2020 by using the established SD(System dynamics model.By changing the value of policy variables in the model, the sensitivity of different regulatory policies is simulated, and the possible effects of relevant regulatory policies are analyzed, and the risks of each regulatory policy are evaluated.It provides a timely and scientific basis for the development of the real estate market in Xiamen.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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