城市综合体项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 09:09

本文选题：城市综合体 + 风险管理　；参考：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：论文基于国内外关于城市综合体项目风险管理的现有研究成果,结合城市综合体项目固有特点,采用文献分析法、定量与定性结合的方法对城市综合体项目进行风险管理研究,与此同时,将风险管理理论应用于“ICON·云端”项目风险管理实践中,充分验证了风险管理理论在城市综合体项目中的实践价值。本文主要研究内容与成果如下：1.系统回顾城市综合体项目风险管理理论在国内外的发展状况,探讨了城市综合体项目在国内外发展历程的差异性,发现了目前研究所存在的问题,以此为基础提出作者的研究方向：与此同时,对研究概念、范围进行界定,为研究奠定基础。2.针对目前城市综合体项目风险管理理论不够成熟、管理效果不佳的局面,提出全过程风险管理思路,该思路既强调宏观上服从项目整体利益,又深入研究项目各开发阶段风险因素的识别与应对,保证了城市综合体项目风险管理的系统性与针对性。3.对风险识别方法进行了深入探讨。为解决风险识别过程中经常出现的风险因素遗漏或重复的问题,提出运用二维分解结构进行风险识别方案,该方案可从两个角度进行风险因素的识别。通过在实际案例中使用发现,这一方法对于解决上述风险识别问题是有效的。4.运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法进行风险分析与评价。首先通过层次分析法得出各因素的相对重要性权重,然后运用模糊综合评价方法得出项目的风险等级为“较高风险”。5.以项目开发阶段为单位进行风险应对。以风险分析与评价结果为基础,以开发阶段为划分依据,充分考虑风险识别成本,选取各阶段对城市综合体项目威胁程度较高的风险因素进行应对策略的开发。
[Abstract]:Based on the existing research results of urban complex project risk management at home and abroad, combined with the inherent characteristics of urban complex project, the paper uses the literature analysis method, quantitative and qualitative methods to study the risk management of urban complex project. At the same time, the application of risk management theory to the risk management practice of "ICON cloud" project fully verifies the practical value of risk management theory in urban complex project. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: 1. This paper systematically reviews the development of urban complex project risk management theory at home and abroad, probes into the differences in the development process of urban complex project at home and abroad, and finds out the problems existing in the present research. On this basis, the author's research direction is put forward: at the same time, the concept and scope of the research are defined to lay the foundation for the research. In view of the situation that the risk management theory of urban complex project is not mature enough and the effect of management is not good at present, the whole process risk management thought is put forward. Furthermore, the identification and response of risk factors in various stages of development of the project are studied in order to ensure the systematization and pertinence of risk management in urban complex projects. The method of risk identification is discussed. In order to solve the problem of omission or repetition of risk factors in the process of risk identification, a two-dimensional decomposition structure is proposed for risk identification, which can be used to identify risk factors from two angles. By using the method in practical cases, this method is effective to solve the above risk identification problem. 4. AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used to analyze and evaluate the risk. Firstly, the relative importance weight of each factor is obtained by AHP, and then the risk grade of the project is "higher risk" .5.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used. Take the project development phase as the unit to deal with the risks. Based on the results of risk analysis and evaluation, taking the development stage as the basis, and fully considering the cost of risk identification, this paper selects the risk factors that threaten the urban complex project in each stage to develop the coping strategy.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.2

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