湖南省农业现代化水平测度及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 05:04

本文选题：农业现代化 + 综合指标测度　；参考：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：湖南是传统的农业大省，但近年来其农业发展却十分缓慢。与此同时，农村土地“抛荒”、农业“空心化”以及留守儿童等“三农”问题也日渐增多。因此，以现代化武装传统农业，走农业现代化道路，积极推进湖南省农业现代化进程显得迫在眉睫。在此背景下，就需要对湖南省农业现代化发展的现状及特点进行研究，并对其主要影响因素进行分析。只有这样才能明确湖南省农业现代化发展缓慢的症结之所在，才能做到“对症下药”找出更为有效的促进其发展的方法和措施，从而加快推进湖南省农业现代化发展进程。所以，本文的研究对促进湖南省农业现代化发展具有重要的现实意义，对进一步解决湖南省“三农”问题以及促进湖南省“新型四化”同步发展也有一定的借鉴意义。本文在搜集大量湖南省农业现代化发展相关数据的基础上对湖南省农业现代化发展情况进行剖析。首先，本文从多个方面对湖南省农业现代化发展现状进行描述统计。然后，从湖南省具体省情出发筛选和替换已有的农业现代化发展评价指标体系中的指标，并综合运用主、客观方法确定各指标权重，以求建立更为科学合理的湖南省农业现代化综合发展评价指标体系，并在此基础上对湖南省农业现代化发展进行综合指数水平测算。同时，对所得结果分别进行横向和纵向的对比分析以便更深刻地剖析湖南省农业现代化发展的进程、结构及其优势劣势。最后，通过对湖南省农业现代化综合指数水平的主要影响因素——资本、劳动力及农村人口受教育水平建立VAR模型，并进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析，得出这些因素对湖南省农业现代化发展水平在短期和长期的影响。根据相关分析，，本文得出如下结论：（1）湖南省近年来农业现代化发展进程十分缓慢，甚至低于全国平均水平，促进湖南省农业现代化发展迫在眉睫；（2）实证结果显示，湖南省农村劳动力的增加对湖南省农业现代化发展起到阻碍作用，湖南省农村劳动力数量存在剩余；（3）对农业和农村的资本资产投资不足是湖南省农业现代化发展缓慢的重要原因之一；（4）较高的农村人口文化素质水平对湖南省农业现代化发展具有长期的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Hunan is a traditional agricultural province, but its agricultural development is very slow in recent years. At the same time, rural land "abandoned", agriculture "hollowing" and left behind children and other "three rural" problems are also increasing. Therefore, it is urgent to arm traditional agriculture with modernization, take the road of agricultural modernization and actively promote the process of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. In this context, it is necessary to study the present situation and characteristics of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province, and analyze its main influencing factors. Only in this way can we make clear the crux of the slow development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province, find out more effective methods and measures to promote the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province, and speed up the development process of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. Therefore, the study of this paper has important practical significance for promoting the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province, and also has certain reference significance for further solving the problem of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" in Hunan Province and promoting the synchronous development of "new-type four modernizations" in Hunan Province. This paper analyzes the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province on the basis of collecting a large amount of data related to the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. First of all, this paper describes the current situation of Hunan agricultural modernization from many aspects. Then, starting from the specific provincial conditions of Hunan Province, we select and replace the existing indicators in the evaluation index system of agricultural modernization development, and comprehensively use subjective and objective methods to determine the weights of each index. In order to establish a more scientific and reasonable evaluation index system for the comprehensive development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province, the comprehensive index level of agricultural modernization development in Hunan Province is calculated on this basis. At the same time, the results are compared horizontally and vertically in order to analyze the development process, structure and advantages and disadvantages of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. Finally, through the establishment of VAR model on the capital, labor force and rural population education level of Hunan agricultural modernization index level, pulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are carried out. The influence of these factors on the development level of Hunan agricultural modernization in the short-term and long-term is obtained. Based on the relevant analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province has been very slow in recent years, even below the national average, so it is urgent to promote the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. The increase of rural labor force in Hunan Province has hindered the development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. The shortage of capital investment in agriculture and rural areas is one of the important reasons for the slow development of agricultural modernization in Hunan Province. The modernization development has the long-term promotion function.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F327;F224

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