我国延迟退休的劳动力市场效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 11:37

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 延迟退休　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：延迟退休得到关注是基于以下三个背景,一是人口老龄化,随着生育率下降和人均寿命延长,无论是个人还是社会的养老压力都在增加,客观上要求延迟退休。二是长时期以来劳动年龄人口首次出现绝对量的下降,随着老龄化的深化,这一群体在绝对量和比重上都会持续降低,意味着人口红利将会逐步消失,延迟退休能够提高人力资本的使用效率,起到缓冲作用。三是就业形势依然严峻,我国作为人口大国,就业总量压力会长期存在,延迟退休会增加劳动力供给,是否会进一步加重就业压力需要充分论证。本文希望验证延迟退休对劳动力市场的效应,研究思路是,首先进行理论分析,为延迟退休寻找理论依据；继而分析人口老龄化及就业形势现状,从客观现实分析延迟退休的必要性和影响；然后进行实证研究,利用计量方法分析延迟退休的劳动力市场效应；最后提出延迟退休的政策建议。遵循这一研究思路,论文通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法来研究延迟退休对劳动力市场的效应,具体研究内容安排如下,第一章主要为文献综述,总结了国内外对于延迟退休的不同研究方法及结论,主要涉及延迟退休与就业的关系。第二章为理论分析,基于生命周期假说进行人口老龄化背景下退休年龄的理论分析,人均预期寿命的延长要求提高退休年龄；基于Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides三人创建的工作搜寻理论(DMP模型)进行退休年龄变动的失业均衡分析,认为即便老年人早退休,也不能为年轻人提供更多岗位,反而会因工作机会减少降低年轻人的就业率。第三章为现状分析,我国的老龄化速度快、程度高,个体生命周期结构发生重大变化,对延迟退休的要求已经非常紧迫；现阶段就业总量压力不可忽视,但长期来看,人口老龄化会减少劳动力供给,使人口红利转为人口负担,延迟退休能够推后这一时间点,而且就业问题主要来自于结构矛盾而非延迟退休增加的劳动年龄人口。第四章为实证分析,基于历史数据采用固定效应回归模型分析得到相关因素对失业率的影响参数,通过模拟分析得出延迟退休对总体失业率的影响,人口发展的趋势使得失业率上升,延迟退休后的失业率要低于退休年龄不变时的失业率,因对平稳性和运行水平影响不同,延迟的时机选择也比较重要。第五章为政策建议,提出了延迟退休的基本原则,并设计了延迟退休的操作路径,提出了相关改革措施,最后对本文整体内容进行了总结。本文的创新之处有两点,第一,研究方法的创新,不局限于前人的描述性分析,借鉴国外理论模型采用公式推导方式分析了人口老龄化下退休年龄的走向以及延迟退休对劳动力市场的影响,同时也使用模拟分析的方法预测延迟退休以后就业的变化。第二,研究数据的创新,利用城镇登记失业率推算实际失业率,使用长期的历年数据估算模型参数,用人口预测数据模拟未来较长时期内就业的变化。论文的不足之处在于,因为我国尚未正式公布城镇调查失业率,因此本文只能根据城镇登记失业率推断实际失业率,可能造成数据的偏差。
[Abstract]:It is based on the following three background , one is the aging of the population , with the decline of the fertility rate and the increase of the per capita life expectancy , whether the individual or the social pension pressure increases , objectively demands the late retirement . The second is the decline of the absolute quantity of the population for the first time since the long period .

In this paper , we hope to verify the effect of late retirement on the labor market .
Then analyze the situation of population aging and employment situation , analyze the necessity and influence of late retirement from objective reality analysis ;
Then the empirical research is carried out to analyze the labor market effect of late retirement by means of measurement method .
Finally , the policy suggestion of late retirement is put forward .

This paper studies the effect of late retirement on the labor market by combining theory with empirical analysis . The first chapter mainly focuses on the literature review , summarizes the different research methods and conclusions about late retirement at home and abroad , and mainly deals with the relationship between late retirement and employment .
According to the job search theory ( DMP model ) created by Diamond , Mortensen and Pissarides , the unemployment equilibrium analysis of retirement age change is carried out . It is believed that , even if the old people retire early , the employment rate of young people cannot be reduced because of the job opportunities .
Chapter IV is an empirical analysis . Based on the historical data , the effect of delay retirement on the overall unemployment rate is obtained . The trend of population development is that the unemployment rate is lower than the unemployment rate when the retirement age is unchanged . In chapter 5 , the basic principle of late retirement is proposed .

The innovation of this paper has two points , the first , the research method innovation , is not limited to the former person ' s descriptive analysis , using the foreign theoretical model to analyze the trend of the retirement age under the aging of the population and the influence of late retirement on the labor market . At the same time , the author uses the method of simulation analysis to predict the change of employment after the late retirement .

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.21

【参考文献】