成都市居民住房支付能力及政府宏观调控政策研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 19:41

本文选题：住房支付能力 + 房价收入比　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：从20世纪80年代开始,我国开始推行住房制度改革。逐步建立了以市场为主导的住房分配体系。城镇居民的住房水平也得到了迅速提高,住房质量和环境也得到了进一步的改善,在取得丰硕成果的同时是房价快速上涨及房屋供给结构失衡等等问题的出现,城镇居民住房消费支出额逐步上升,占家庭可支配收入比重也逐步上升,居民住房压力不断上涨,住房支付能力则一步步下降。而住房问题是重要的民生问题,因此政府如何通过宏观调控解决居民住房困难问题也就成为社会关注的焦点。城镇居民住房支付能力的评估也就成为政府制定住房政策的重要参考依据。成都作为四川省的省会城市,西南地区教育、科技、商贸、金融、文化中心,通信、交通枢纽,2012年,经济总量名列全国15个副省级城市第三(仅仅次于广州、深圳),城市GDP中国大陆第八位,最近几年来经济社会迅速发展中,房地产业的持续健康稳定发展发挥了十分巨大的作用。在经济建设得到了快速的发展之后,居民收入水平有了很大的提高,居民的住房条件得到了很大的改善,但是商品房价格也日益升高。如何保持房地产市场的健康发展,并且让居民真正享受到经济发展带来的福利,改善居住条件,理应成为政府宏观调控的重点。本文在参考国外相关研究的基础上,结合中国具体国情,分析研究了成都市居民住房支付能力问题,本文分为六个部分第一部分,介绍了本文研究的背景和领域,对国内外有关居民住房支付能力的现状进行了综述和评论后,总结了本文的研究方法和具体内容,并就本文的创新点进行了归纳和总结。第二部分,对居民住房支付能力的概念进行了界定,认为一个家庭必须在满足住房消费支出的同时,有能力负担其他日常消费支出时才认为该家庭具有住房支付能力,并详细介绍了房价收入比(PR)、住房可支付性指数(HAI)、月供收入比(MIR)三大指标,得出的房价收入比指标(PIR)简单明了,但在实际应用中该指标却缺乏一个统一的标准,住房可支付性指数(HAI)把家庭住房按揭贷款支出额不超过家庭月均可支配收入的25%作为判断标准,在目前我国房价居高不下的情况下适用性不强,月供收入比(MIR)仅仅用来衡量按揭买房居民的住房支付能力,三大指标各有优点,但根据我国实际情况,本文最后提出了又一辅助性指标月供消费结余(Balance)用于测算城镇居民收入在支付正常供房和日常消费开支后的结余。第三部分,首先对成都市房地产市场最近七年的运行情况进行了综述,再分别从市场需求和供给两个方便分析了各年的变动情况,结合住宅商品房的相关价格统计数据,从统计图上看到2003-2012年成都市住宅商品房价格的变动趋势基本是一路上涨的,从数据分析来看近年来成都市房地产市场供求双向持续增长,但整体需求增长幅度超过供给的增长幅度,一方面源于居民收入增长所带来的需求的提高,另一方面在于整体城市化率的增长。最后结合成都市居民各年的收入情况分析了影响居民住房支付能力的几大因素,既定量分析了影响居民住房支付能力的三大因素：居民收入、房价、利率,也定性分析了政府调控因素和住房保障因素。第四部分,介绍了时间序列的几种基本模型和ARIMA模型的建模步骤,具体测算了成都市居民住房支付能力的四大指标,通过对成都市居民2003-2012年有关该四个衡量指标的具体测算后发现成都居民住房支付能力偏低的结论。最后通过ARIMA时间序列模型预测了成都居民房价收入比(PIR)指标在2013-2015年的数值,得出如果按照目前市场形势发展下去,2013-2015年成都市居民房价收入比呈现上升趋势,整体居民住房支付能力呈下降趋势,这说明成都市居民可支配收入的增长速度小于普通住宅价格的上涨速度。并且房价收入比的值仍然居于高位,在8以上,远远超过城镇居民住房支付能力,成都市居民住房问题仍然严峻。第五部分,成都作为西部唯一的特大型城市,强调市场化带动房地产业发展,扩大房地产市场的有效需求和供给,根据中央政府房地产结构调整规划,为应对住宅价格偏高的问题,目前,成都市正逐步形成由商品房、经济适用房(可租可售)和廉租房三个层次的住房供应体系为主,辅之以限价房、公共租赁房,着力构建完善的公共住房供应体系,真正实现人民“住有所居”。所以本文从政府宏观调控的角度提出了提高成都居民住房支付能力的相关政策建议。主要有(1)从土地财政的角度解决地方政府对土地财政的依赖,间接性或直接性的降低房价,从而提高居民住房支付能力；(2)从增加住房供给的角度,提出了增加房屋供给量及优化供给结构的相关建议；(3)从政府完善住房保障体系的角度提出相关政策建议；(4)从政府提供措施降低中低收入居民住房成本和非住房支出角度提出了具体可行措施；(5)从政府财政补贴的角度,提出了增加中低收入家庭可支配收入的相关举措；(6)从政府采取行政性调控措施的角度,提出政府为维持房地产市场持续稳定发展并间接性的解决居民住房能力的相关政策建议。本文通过对成都市居民住房支付能力研究,判断现在的成都市居民住房市场价格是否与居民收入所代表的住房购买力相匹配。并为政府制定相应的住房和调控政策及实施住房保障措施提供参考,以遏制居民住房问题的进一步扩大。并在此基础上运用ARIMA时间序列模型对房价收入比进行了预测,希望本文所得到的相关结论和提出的具体政策建议能为政府制定相关解决居民住房困难问题的政策提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, the housing system reform has been carried out in China. The housing distribution system dominated by the market has been gradually established. The housing level of urban residents has also been rapidly improved, and the housing quality and environment have been further improved. The housing consumption expenditure of urban residents is rising gradually, and the proportion of household disposable income is rising gradually, the housing pressure is rising, and the housing payment ability is falling step by step. The housing problem is an important livelihood problem, so how the government can solve the housing difficulties through macro regulation and control Become the focus of social concern. Evaluation of housing affordability of urban residents has also become an important reference for the government to formulate housing policies.
Chengdu, as the capital city of Sichuan Province, the southwest region education, science and technology, trade, finance, culture center, communication, transportation hub, in 2012, the total economic total ranks 15 sub provincial cities third (only next to Guangzhou, Shenzhen), the city GDP China eighth, the rapid economic and social development in recent years, the sustainable health of the real estate industry Stable development has played a great role. After the rapid development of economic construction, the income level of residents has been greatly improved, the housing conditions of the residents have been greatly improved, but the price of commercial housing is also increasing. How to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and let the residents really enjoy the economic development The welfare and improvement of living conditions should become the focus of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.
On the basis of foreign related research and combined with China's specific national conditions, this paper analyzes and studies the housing affordability of Chengdu residents. This article is divided into six parts.
In the first part, the background and field of this study are introduced. After reviewing and reviewing the status of housing payment capacity at home and abroad, the research methods and specific contents are summarized, and the innovation points of this paper are summarized and summarized.
In the second part, the concept of housing payment capacity is defined. It is considered that a family must meet the housing consumption expenditure and have the ability to burden other daily consumption expenditure only when the family has the capacity of housing payment, and the house price income ratio (PR), the housing affordability index (HAI), and the monthly income ratio (MIR) are introduced in detail. Three major indicators, the price income ratio of the index (PIR) is simple and clear, but in practical application, the index is lack of a unified standard. The housing affordability index (HAI) makes the home housing mortgage loan amount not more than 25% of the family monthly disposable income as a criterion. It is applicable under the current situation of high house prices in China. Not strong, the monthly income ratio (MIR) is only used to measure the housing payment capacity of the mortgaged house residents. The three major indicators have their advantages. However, according to the actual situation of our country, this paper finally puts forward a supplementary index of Balance for the balance of urban residents' income after the payment of normal housing and daily consumption expenses.
The third part, first of all, the last seven years of the Chengdu real estate market operation situation is reviewed, and then from the market demand and supply of two convenient analysis of the changes in the year, combined with the housing commodity house related price statistics, from the statistical map to see 2003-2012 years in the 2003-2012 years of residential housing price changes in the basic trend. According to the data analysis, the supply and demand of Chengdu real estate market is increasing in two directions in recent years, but the growth of the overall demand is more than the supply. On the one hand, the increase of the demand from the growth of residents' income and the growth of the overall urbanization rate are on the other hand. Finally, the income of the residents in Chengdu is combined with each year's income. Several factors that affect the housing payment ability of residents are analyzed. The three factors that affect the residents' housing payment capacity are analyzed quantitatively, including residents' income, house price, interest rate, and the factors of government regulation and housing security.
In the fourth part, several basic models of time series and the modeling steps of ARIMA model are introduced, and the four indexes of housing payment capacity of Chengdu residents are calculated, and the conclusion that the housing payment ability of Chengdu residents is low after 2003-2012 years of Chengdu residents' four measurement indexes is found. Finally, through ARIMA The time series model predicts the value of the housing price ratio (PIR) index of Chengdu residents in 2013-2015 years. It is concluded that if the current market situation is developed in accordance with the current market situation, the housing price ratio of residents in Chengdu is on the rise in 2013-2015 years, and the housing payment ability of the whole residents is declining, which shows the rapid growth of the disposable income of the residents in Chengdu. The rate is less than the price of ordinary housing. And the value of the house price income ratio is still in the high position, which is above 8. It is far more than the housing payment capacity of urban residents. The housing problem of the residents in Chengdu is still severe.
In the fifth part, Chengdu, as the only large city in the west, emphasizes the market driven development of the real estate industry, the expansion of the effective demand and supply of the real estate market. According to the adjustment and planning of the central government's real estate structure, in order to cope with the high price of housing, Chengdu is gradually forming a commercial housing and affordable housing (available for sale). And low rent housing three levels of housing supply system, supplemented by limited housing, public rental housing, to build a perfect public housing supply system, to truly realize the people "live in". Therefore, this article from the perspective of the government macro regulation and control proposed to improve the housing payment capacity of Chengdu residents related policy recommendations. The main (1) from the soil To solve the local government's dependence on land finance, to reduce house price indirectly or directly, and to improve the housing payment capacity of residents. (2) from the angle of increasing housing supply, some suggestions are put forward to increase the supply of housing and optimize the supply structure; (3) the relevant government's improvement of housing security system is put forward. Policy recommendations; (4) from the government to provide measures to reduce the housing cost of low-income residents and non housing expenditure point of view put forward concrete feasible measures; (5) from the perspective of government financial subsidies, put forward the relevant measures to increase the disposable income of middle and low income families; (6) from the perspective of the government to take administrative measures to maintain the government to maintain Relevant policies and recommendations for the steady and steady development of the real estate market and indirect solutions to the housing capacity of residents.
Through the study of the housing payment capacity of residents in Chengdu, this paper determines whether the current housing market price of residents in Chengdu matches the housing purchasing power represented by residents' income, and provides a reference for the government to formulate corresponding housing and regulation policies and implement housing security measures so as to curb the further expansion of housing problems. On this basis, the ARIMA time series model is used to predict the ratio of house price to income. It is hoped that the relevant conclusions and specific policy suggestions obtained in this paper can provide reference for the government to formulate policies to solve the housing difficulties of residents.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F123.16

【参考文献】