基于空间溢出模拟的旅游圈识别研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 03:38

本文选题：旅游圈 + 溢出　；参考：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：区域旅游合作已经成为当今旅游业发展的重要态势,旅游圈作为区域旅游合作的重要形式与产物,据不完全统计,目前被学术界和政府关注和提出的已经有30多个。但是这些旅游圈的构建合理吗,是否具有内在的动力支持抑或政府的“一厢情愿”；如果合理,其规模又该如何界定。因此旅游圈的识别和规模界定成为学者们广泛关注的科学问题,然而当前的研究多为主观判别的定性方法和从旅游供给角度分析的定量方法,缺乏市场需求分析的视角,且缺乏经济学机理的解释。鉴于此本文以2011年度中国大陆361个地级市的社会经济数据及1989个4A级以上景区的游时数据(来源于2010年百强旅行社提供的8227条旅游线路)为基础,基于GIS (Geographic Information System)在地市级尺度上构建了一个旅游需求溢出测度的ABS (Agent-Based Simulation)平台。根据现实中游客的行为规律设计了景区游览效用原则,并针对中国现阶段游客典型的三类旅游消费行为——观光游、度假游和自驾游,分别构建了三种模型及算法：“全局线路效用最优”、“固定节点效用最优”和“移动节点效用最优”,进而引入基于自主体模拟(ABS)的方法,开展以游客景区选择行为为基础的旅游溢出模拟,并根据旅游域交互次数(游客Agent的跨界行为),从旅游需求溢出视角对中国大陆具有发展潜力的旅游圈及其空间规模进行识别研究。论文撰写遵循理论梳理—模型构建—模拟分析的研究思路,将全文分为四章：第一章,本章通过对旅游圈相关研究成果进行文献综述,总结了目前学术界对旅游圈范围在研究方法及研究视角上的局限,提出需要从旅游溢出的角度来定量计算区域间旅游合作的有效程度。然而如何对旅游溢出进行定量测度,本文在梳理相关研究之后发现目前学术界主要形成了联立方程法、似不相关回归模型、空间计量经济学模型及缺口变量法四种测度思路,但是联立方程法和似不相关回归模型难以有效刻画大样本城市(／区域)间的旅游溢出效应,空间计量经济模型虽然能弥补这一不足,然而这三种方法均为统计模型,对旅游溢出的机理解释不足,缺口法模型虽然能解释旅游溢出的机理,但其又不能实现多区域的旅游交互计算。总体来看这四种测度方法均不能兼顾“微观机理”和“多区域交互”的困境,为此需要引入新的研究方法。考虑到ABS方法在解决复杂问题上得天独厚的优势及其在旅游模拟中的广泛应用,本文拟引入ABS对旅游溢出进行模拟。第二章,本章分别从旅游溢出模拟环境、游客Agent时空属性以及游客Agent行为规则这三个方面对旅游溢出的ABS模型进行构建。另外总结出中国目前三类典型的游客消费行为—观光游、度假游和自驾游,并根据三类行为模式下游客的不同行为规则构建三种相应的旅游溢出模型及算法(全局线路效用最优、固定节点效用最优和移动节点效用最优),其中论文中所需的所有数据来源和处理也在这一部分进行说明。第三章,由于区域间旅游业的空间溢出效应在很大程度上表现为旅游流的跨界流动,因此本文选取旅游域交互次数对三种游客Agent模型下的旅游溢出模拟结果进行分析,并根据本文制定的旅游圈识别标准和划分原则对中国大陆旅游圈进行识别和规模研究。结果表明在强约束条件下中国大陆可发展9个适度旅游圈,分别是长三角旅游圈、北京旅游圈、西安旅游圈、山东旅游圈、四川旅游圈、太原旅游圈、皖南旅游圈、辽宁旅游圈、长株潭旅游圈,如果放宽约束条件,全国旅游圈的个数拓展至14个。最后本文对中国旅游圈的空间格局进行研究,并选取长株潭旅游圈进行案例分析。第四章,对本文取得的成果进行总结,并提出一些需要改进的地方：如景区数据和交通距离的选取,游客Agent之间的交互问题等等,本文在后续的研究中将会深入探讨。
[Abstract]:Regional tourism cooperation has become an important trend in the development of tourism. Tourism circle is an important form and product of regional tourism cooperation. According to incomplete statistics, more than 30 have been paid attention to and put forward by academia and government. But are the construction of these tourism circles reasonable, internal power support or government? If it is reasonable, how to define its scale, so the identification and scale of the tourism circle have become a scientific problem that scholars have paid much attention to. However, the current research is mostly qualitative methods of subjective discrimination and quantitative methods from the perspective of tourism supply, lack of the perspective of market demand analysis, and lack of economic mechanism. In view of this paper, based on the social and economic data of 361 mainland cities in 2011 and 1989 scenic spots above the 4A level (from the 8227 travel routes provided by the top 100 travel agencies in 2010), this paper builds a tourist demand spillover based on the GIS (Geographic Information System) at the city level. ABS (Agent-Based Simulation) platform. According to the behavior law of tourists in reality, the principle of tourist attraction is designed. According to the typical three kinds of tourist consumption behavior of Chinese tourists at present stage, sightseeing tour, holiday tour and self driving tour, three kinds of models and calculation methods are constructed respectively: "the best of global line utility", "fixed node" The utility optimal and the "mobile node utility best" are introduced, and then the method based on ABS is introduced to carry out the tourism spillover simulation based on the tourist attractions selection behavior, and according to the interaction times of tourist domain (the cross boundary behavior of tourist Agent), the tourism circle with the development potential from the perspective of tourism demand and its development potential in China and its development potential The study of spatial scale is carried out. The thesis is written in accordance with theoretical research, model building and simulation analysis. The paper is divided into four chapters.
In the first chapter, through a literature review on the related research results of tourism circle, this chapter summarizes the limitations of the current academic circles on the research methods and research perspectives of the scope of the tourism circle, and proposes the quantitative calculation of the effectiveness of inter regional tourism cooperation from the perspective of tourism spillovers. After combing the related research, it is found that the current academic circles have mainly formed the simultaneous equation method, like unrelated regression model, spatial econometrics model and gap variable method, but it is difficult to describe the tourism spillover effect between the large sample cities (/ regions) effectively, and the spatial econometric model is not effective. Although the model can make up for this deficiency, these three methods are all statistical models, which can not explain the mechanism of tourism spillovers. Although the gap method can explain the mechanism of tourism spillovers, they can not achieve multi regional tourism interaction calculation. In general, these four methods can not take into account "micro mechanism" and "multi region". Considering the unique advantage of ABS method in solving complex problems and its wide application in tourism simulation, this paper introduces ABS to simulate tourism spillovers.
In the second chapter, this chapter constructs the ABS model of tourism spillover from the three aspects of tourism spillover simulation environment, tourist Agent space-time attributes and tourists' Agent behavior rules. In addition, it summarizes the three typical tourist consumption behaviors in China - sightseeing tours, holiday tours and self driving tours, and according to the differences of tourists in the three types of behavior patterns. The behavior rules construct three corresponding travel spillover models and algorithms (global line utility optimal, fixed node utility optimal and mobile node utility optimal). All the data sources and treatment required in the paper are also explained in this part.
The third chapter, because the spatial spillover effect of interregional tourism is largely expressed as the transboundary flow of tourism flow, this paper analyzes the simulation results of tourism spillovers in the three tourist Agent models by selecting the interaction times of tourist domain, and according to the criteria and principles of the tourism circle identification and the principle of dividing the tourism circle of this paper to China's mainland tourism circle. The results show that under the strong constraints, China can develop 9 moderate tourism circles, namely, the Yangtze River Delta tourism circle, Beijing tourism circle, Xi'an tourism circle, Shandong tourism circle, Sichuan tourism circle, Taiyuan tourism circle, Southern Anhui tourism circle, Liaoning tourism circle and Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan tourism circle, if the constraints are relaxed and the national tourism is relaxed. The number of circles extends to 14. Finally, this paper studies the spatial pattern of China's tourism circle and selects Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan tourism circle as case study.
The fourth chapter summarizes the achievements of this article, and puts forward some areas for improvement, such as the selection of scenic spot data and traffic distance, the interaction between tourist Agent and so on. This article will be discussed in further research.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F590;F224

【参考文献】