中国经济结构调整轨迹研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 05:34

本文选题：经济结构 + 调整轨迹　；参考：《统计与信息论坛》2015年03期

【摘要】：采用自组织特征映射法对中国经济结构调整轨迹进行刻画。研究发现,改革开放以来中国经济结构调整过程发生了7次轨迹调整,经系统聚类后可以划分为两个阶段,其中第二阶段结构调整更为全面,结构关联更为复杂。整体来看,中国结构调整过程符合一般经济发展规律,产业结构升级拉动投资需求,并伴随着金融和贸易结构深化主导了经济结构的调整节奏。与"结构失衡"造成发展不可持续的观点一致,从结构指标权值的角度判断,当前经济发展模式对经济拉动存在极限。调整手段应由所处阶段决定,"三期叠加"下对投资刺激政策的消化需要借鉴部分发展中国家过早"去工业化"的教训;出口贸易依然是重要的发展推动力,而刺激内需的做法恐难达到预期效果。
[Abstract]:The self-organizing feature mapping method is used to describe the track of China's economic structure adjustment. It is found that there have been 7 locus adjustments in the process of economic restructuring since the reform and opening up in China, and the second stage can be divided into two stages after systematic clustering. The second stage is more comprehensive and the structural correlation is more complex. On the whole, the process of China's structural adjustment accords with the general law of economic development, the upgrading of industrial structure drives the investment demand, and with the deepening of financial and trade structure, it dominates the adjustment of economic structure. In line with the view that "structural imbalance" leads to unsustainable development, judging from the weight value of structural indicators, the current economic development mode has limits to economic pull. The means of adjustment should be determined by the stage at which they are located, and the digestion of investment stimulus policies under the "three phases superposition" needs to draw on the lessons of premature "de-industrialization" in some developing countries; export trade remains an important driving force for development. And the practice of stimulating domestic demand is unlikely to achieve the desired results.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【分类号】：F224;F124

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