预期视角下住房需求调控效果的城市差异研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 05:43

本文选题：预期 + 住房需求调控　；参考：《数理统计与管理》2015年04期

【摘要】：如何抑制住房需求的非理性增长已成为稳定房价,促进市场健康发展的关键问题。建立了含有市场参与者预期和城市差异的住房需求调控模型,并对1999-2010年间住房调控政策在各类城市的实施效果进行了比较和模拟分析。研究表明:市场参与者预期在样本期内对4类城市的住房需求都具有显著的正向影响,且房价水平越高的城市其住房需求越容易受房价预期的影响;存款准备金率只对B-D类城市住房需求产生了不同程度的抑制作用;土地工具对4类城市住房需求都产生了刺激作用,但作用力度各不相同;利率、经适房工具只对A类城市产生了显著影响,且作用方向相反;模拟分析表明同一政策工具在4类城市实施后,住房需求的响应是不同的。研究结论在一定程度上解释了国内住房调控的低效,对于提高住房需求调控的针对性、差异化和有效性,促进市场主体合理决策等都具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:How to restrain the irrational increase of housing demand has become the key problem to stabilize the housing price and promote the healthy development of the market. This paper establishes a housing demand regulation model with market participants' expectation and urban difference, and compares and simulates the effect of housing regulation policy in various cities from 1999 to 2010. The results show that: the market participants expect to have a significant positive impact on the housing demand of the four cities in the sample period, and the higher the housing price level, the more vulnerable to the impact of housing demand expected by the housing price; The reserve ratio of deposit only has different degree of restraining effect to the housing demand of B-D city; Land instrument has stimulated the demand for housing of four kinds of cities, but the action intensity is different; interest rate, Comfortable housing's tools only have a significant impact on A-type cities, and the direction of action is opposite. Simulation analysis shows that the response of housing demand is different after the same policy tool is implemented in the four types of cities. To some extent, the conclusion explains the inefficiency of domestic housing regulation and control, which has certain practical significance to improve the pertinence, differentiation and effectiveness of housing demand regulation, and to promote the rational decision of the main body of the market.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70973072);国家自然科学基金项目(70573066) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJCZH098) 山西省软科学研究项目(2014041025-2)
【分类号】：F299.23

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