宏观经济因素对我国房地产企业信用风险的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 02:25

本文选题：信用风险 + 房地产企业　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产公司作为一个先导性、基础性的产业,其市场规模巨大,关系到国计民生,其发展既受到国民经济的制约,又对经济的发展有巨大的促进作用。然而,房地产属于的资本密集产业,房地产企业有高负债运营和前期投资较高的特点,使得企业需要借助其他资金的支持,这导致了房地产的高风险性。加强房地产企业的信用风险研究对于促进房地产行业健康发展,有着重要现实意义。近几年,国内外的众多事件,显示了房地产信用风险受到宏观经济因素的影响。在介绍宏观经济理论和房地产信用风险的基础上,对房地产信用风险与宏观经济的关系做了分析。随后,以KMV模型作为度量我国房地产企业信用风险的方法,以53家房地产上市公司为样本,计算房地产企业的违约距离,并将其作为衡量房地产企业信用风险指标。在此基础上,使用面板回归模型,以违约距离为被解释变量,宏观经济指标作为解释变量,房地产企业财务指标作为控制变量,对宏观经济因素与信用风险的关系做了实证检验。实证结果显示,宏观经济指标中GDP增长率、居民消费价格指数、利率、货币供应量与房地产企业信用风险存在显著关系。最后,通过研究结论,提出加强房地产企业信用风险管理的建议：加强企业自身应对经济变动的能力；债权人应关注宏观经济对信用风险的影响；加强房地产信用体系建设；改进现有风险评估方法。
[Abstract]:As a leading and basic industry, real estate company has a huge market scale, which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Its development is not only restricted by the national economy, but also plays a huge role in promoting the economic development. However, the real estate belongs to the capital intensive industry, the real estate enterprise has the characteristics of high debt operation and high investment in the early stage, which makes the enterprise need the support of other funds, which leads to the high risk of the real estate. It is of great practical significance to strengthen the research on the credit risk of the real estate enterprises to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. In recent years, many events at home and abroad show that real estate credit risk is affected by macroeconomic factors. Based on the introduction of macroeconomic theory and real estate credit risk, the relationship between real estate credit risk and macro economy is analyzed. Then, the KMV model is used as the method to measure the credit risk of real estate enterprises in China, and 53 listed real estate companies are taken as samples to calculate the default distance of real estate enterprises and take it as an index to measure the credit risk of real estate enterprises. On this basis, we use the panel regression model, take the distance of default as the explanatory variable, macroeconomic indicators as the explanatory variable, real estate enterprise financial index as the control variable. The relationship between macroeconomic factors and credit risk is tested empirically. The empirical results show that the GDP growth rate, consumer price index, interest rate and money supply in macroeconomic indicators are significantly related to the credit risk of real estate enterprises. Finally, through the conclusion of the study, the paper puts forward some suggestions for strengthening the credit risk management of real estate enterprises: strengthening the ability of enterprises to deal with economic changes; creditors should pay attention to the impact of macro economy on credit risk; strengthen the construction of real estate credit system; Improve existing risk assessment methods.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.4

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