物流需求预测在M公司的应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 13:12

本文选题：物流 + 需求　；参考：《苏州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着顾客需求的多样化、企业竞争的激烈、全球制造概念的发展，精益生产在制造企业各个领域不断的推行，精益思想在制造企业已经深入人心。物流作为整个制造过程中重要的一环，同时物流已经成为世界公认的“第三利润源泉”。各企业都在希望通过精细化，量化管理来提高企业物流管理的水平，降低企业在物流流通中的成本。各企业一直在寻求解决基于承载物品的载体的物流需求量预测的不平衡和不确定性的问题的方案。因此，本文通过对物流需求预测的研究，同时通过在M公司的应用，建立了物流需求预测模型，验证物流需求预测模型并对模型进行了进一步的优化。本文以物流需求预测的理论和研究现状为基础，研究物流需求预测及结合实际在企业中的应用。首先，在阅读和分析了国内外物流需求预测的相关研究及相关背景的基础上明确了本文的研究问题、目的和意义；其次，介绍物流需求预测理论，物流需求预测方法及局限性，综述国内外的研究现状；最后，通过在M公司物流需求中实际应用，验证了基于承载物品的载体的物流需求预测模型，，并分析预测误差，从而进行了进一步的模型优化。通过分析及实证应用研究，本文认为物流需求预测可以为企业加强内部物流管理精细化提供一个有效的预测工具，相对准确的预测出物流需求，很好的解决了企业内部物流需求量的不平衡和不确定性问题，从而为企业需要对承载物品的载体需求量做预测时提供了一个简单可行的方法。
[Abstract]:With the diversification of customer demand, the fierce competition of enterprises, the development of global manufacturing concept, lean production in all fields of manufacturing enterprises continue to promote, lean thinking in manufacturing enterprises have been deeply rooted. Logistics, as an important part of the whole manufacturing process, has become the "third profit source" in the world. All enterprises hope to improve the level of logistics management and reduce the cost of logistics circulation. Enterprises have been looking for solutions to the problem of imbalance and uncertainty in logistics demand prediction based on carrier of carrying goods. Therefore, through the research of logistics demand forecasting and the application in M company, this paper establishes logistics demand forecasting model, validates logistics demand forecasting model and further optimizes the model. Based on the theory and research status of logistics demand forecasting, this paper studies logistics demand forecasting and its application in enterprises. First of all, on the basis of reading and analyzing the related research and related background of logistics demand prediction at home and abroad, the paper clarifies the research problem, purpose and significance of this paper; secondly, it introduces logistics demand forecasting theory, logistics demand forecasting method and its limitations. This paper summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and finally, through the practical application in the logistics demand of M Company, verifies the logistics demand forecasting model based on the carrier of carrying goods, and analyzes the prediction error, so as to optimize the model further. Through the analysis and empirical application research, this paper holds that logistics demand prediction can provide an effective forecasting tool for enterprises to strengthen the internal logistics management, relatively accurate prediction of logistics demand. It solves the problem of imbalance and uncertainty of logistics demand, and provides a simple and feasible method for enterprise to forecast the carrier demand of carrying goods.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.4;F253

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