EPC总承包项目全过程风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 15:54

本文选题：EPC总承包 + 全过程风险管理　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：EPC,总承包模式是近年来国际上较为流行的工程总承包模式,在该种模式下,总承包商工程承包范围扩大、不确定性因素增加等等,在这样的背景下,本文对EPC总承包模式的风险管理过程及风险管理方法进行了系统研究。本文对风险管理观念和体系进行了研究,根据工程项目生命周期理论,分析项目风险管理过程与项目生命周期的关系,并从EPC,总承包商角度分析项目生命周期理论的适用性：提出基于项目生命周期的风险管理过程模型,该模型充分考虑风险管理过程的循环和反馈作用,为风险的动态管理提供了研究基础。本文对风险管理过程中的风险识别、风险估计和风险评价方法进行重点研究,分阶段对EPC项目风险源进行分析并给出风险应对措施；根据对FIDIC合同的研读,分析EPC项目的合同风险并提出合同风险应对措施。在工程项目风险估计和风险评价方法系统分析的基础上,采用基于ANP-模糊综合评价的方法对EPC项目进行风险评价,建立该方法的评价模型,模型充分考虑风险评价指标体系中指标相关性对评价结果的影响,建立评价指标间的网络层次结构,实现风险因素的重要性评价及项目的整体风险水平评价。针对所建网络评价模型的复杂计算问题,本文使用了超级决策软件(Super Decision),通过实证分析证明所建评价模型的有效性,并针对所评价项目给出风险应对计划。
[Abstract]:EPC, general contracting mode is a popular general contracting mode in the world in recent years, under this kind of mode, the scope of general contractor project contract is expanded, the uncertainty factor increases and so on, under this background, In this paper, the risk management process and risk management methods of EPC general contracting mode are systematically studied. In this paper, the concept and system of risk management are studied. According to the theory of project life cycle, the relationship between project risk management process and project life cycle is analyzed. The applicability of project life cycle theory is analyzed from the point of view of EPC and general contractor. A risk management process model based on project life cycle is proposed, which fully considers the cycle and feedback of risk management process. It provides the research foundation for the dynamic management of risk. This paper focuses on the risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation in the process of risk management, analyzes the risk sources of EPC project in stages and gives the risk countermeasures. Analyze the contract risk of EPC project and put forward the measures to deal with the contract risk. Based on the systematic analysis of engineering project risk estimation and risk evaluation method, the EPC project risk evaluation is carried out based on ANP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the evaluation model of this method is established. The model fully considers the impact of index correlation on the evaluation results in the risk evaluation index system, establishes the network hierarchy structure among the evaluation indicators, realizes the importance evaluation of risk factors and the evaluation of the overall risk level of the project. Aiming at the complex computing problem of the network evaluation model, the super decision software is used in this paper. The effectiveness of the evaluation model is proved by empirical analysis, and the risk response plan is given for the evaluated project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F284

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