南宁市保障性住房用地需求研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 23:05

本文选题：保障性住房 + 中低收入群体　；参考：《广西师范学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来我国经济有了快速发展，国内生产总值跃居全球第二，而在这大踏步式的发展下国内的一些矛盾也在日益加剧。根据统计数据显示，房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的一大支柱产业，随着经济水平的上升，居民收入水平的差距也在拉大（根据国家统计局公布的2000—2012年的基尼系数显示，中国居民收入的基尼系数年均增长1.3%），对人们生活起基础保障作用的住房成了关注的焦点。同时，随着“十二五”规划城镇化进程的加快人们居住需求与土地供给矛盾日益突显。如何处理好人们居住需求与城市发展已成为政府首要解决的问题。面对大量的城市居民住房压力，政府加大了对保障房的建设力度。经过多年的经验积累，我国形成了以经济适用房、廉租房、政策性住房为主的住房保障体系。在土地、金融、财政等方面相继推出了多项政策、法规，确保保障性住房建设目标能够顺利实施。本文立足于经济适用房、廉租房、公共性租赁住房三种保障性住房类型，通过定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法构建了保障性住房用地规模测算的框架体系。论文采用灰色模型GM(1，1)、中值计算法、住房支付能力计算方法最终测算出南宁市的保障性住房用地需求，采用结构方程模型量化了保障性住房的影响因素为对策建议提供论据。通过灰色模型模型预测出了2013-2016年各年各类的基础数据，为2005-2016年南宁市保障性住房用地需求测算垫定了数据基础。中值计算法得出了南宁市城镇居民各收入群体各年份的比重，通过比重可知中低收入群体家庭数量。采用住房支付能力的计算方法对各收入群体购买商品房和经济适用房的住房支付能力测算，计算结果显示较低收入群体和中间收入群体具备支付经济适用房能力，低收入、最低收入群体对商品房、经济适用房均不具备支付能力因此适宜分配廉租房和公共租赁性住房。文中测算保障性住房需求量时考虑了廉租房、公共租赁性住房、经济适用房的产权性质（公共租赁性住房存在退租因素，而经济适用房无需退出），对住房需求量进行了修正以符合实际情况。已知保障性住房需求类别、需求量便可得保障性住房用地需求规模。根据测算结果，假定政府各年度均能够足额提供保障性住房用地，则经历2008-2009年保障性住房用地需求峰值之后，在租赁性住房的退租模式下，廉租房2010-2013年各年度新增住房用地需求均可从退出住房中得到满足，公共租赁性住房自2008年起，各年度新增住房用地需求均可从退出住房中得到满足。文章最后进行了保障性住房需求的影响因素分析，进行影响因素分析一方面是为了验证保障性住房用地需求从经济角度、住房消费角度进行分析的可行性，另一方面是为保障性住房用地需求相关问题的解决提供建议做铺垫。最后根据对保障性住房需求及用地需求提出相关建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economy of our country has developed rapidly, the GDP has leapt to the second place in the world, and some contradictions in our country are becoming more and more serious under the rapid development. According to the statistical data, the real estate industry has become a pillar industry in driving the development of the national economy. With the rise of the economic level, The gap in income levels is also widening (according to the Gini coefficient, published by the National Bureau of Statistics for the period 2000-2012, Chinese residents' Gini coefficient is growing at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent, making housing, which provides basic protection for people's lives, the focus of attention. At the same time, with the acceleration of urbanization in the 12th Five-Year Plan, the contradiction between people's housing demand and land supply is becoming increasingly prominent. How to deal with people's housing needs and urban development has become the government's primary problem. In the face of a large number of urban residents housing pressure, the government has stepped up the construction of indemnificatory apartment. After many years of experience accumulation, China has formed a housing security system based on comfortable housing, low-rent housing and policy-oriented housing. In land, finance, finance and other aspects of the introduction of a number of policies, laws and regulations to ensure the smooth implementation of affordable housing construction objectives. Based on comfortable housing, low-rent housing, public rental housing three types of affordable housing, through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the combination of research methods to build a framework for the calculation of the scale of affordable housing land system. In this paper, the grey model GMM1D, the median calculation method and the housing affordability calculation method are used to calculate the demand for affordable housing land in Nanning City, and the structural equation model is used to quantify the influencing factors of the supportable housing to provide arguments for countermeasures and suggestions. All kinds of basic data for 2013-2016 are predicted by grey model, which is the basis for the calculation of the demand for supportable housing land in Nanning from 2005 to 2016. The median calculation method has obtained the proportion of each income group of urban residents in Nanning city, and the number of families of middle and low income groups can be known by the proportion of each income group. The calculation method of housing affordability is used to calculate the housing payment ability of each income group to buy commercial housing and comfortable housing. The results show that the lower income group and the middle income group have the ability to pay comfortable housing and the low income. The lowest income group has no ability to pay for commercial housing, so it is suitable to allocate low-rent housing and public rental housing. In this paper, the demand for affordable housing is calculated with the consideration of low-rent housing, public rental housing, and the property rights of comfortable housing. Comfortable housing does not need to withdraw, housing demand has been revised to meet the actual situation. Given the type of housing demand, the demand for affordable housing land demand can be obtained. According to the calculation results, assuming that the government can provide the full amount of affordable housing land in each year, after experiencing the peak demand for affordable housing land in 2008-2009, under the rental housing rentals model, The demand for new housing land for each year of low-rent housing 2010-2013 can be met from the exit housing, public rental housing since 2008, each year new housing land demand can be met from the exit housing. Finally, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the demand for affordable housing. On the one hand, the purpose of the analysis is to verify the feasibility of the analysis of the demand for affordable housing land from the angle of economy and housing consumption. On the other hand, it provides suggestions for solving the problems related to the demand for affordable housing land. Finally, according to the demand for affordable housing and land demand put forward relevant recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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