基于面板数据模型下城镇化发展与就业结构的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-13 18:08

本文选题：城镇化测度指标体系 + 熵值法　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本届政府多次把城镇化称为“未来几十年最大的发展潜力”,指出其是优化就业结构、促进产业升级的关键因素,近年来四川省城镇化进程在快速前进,去年省政府在出台的《关于2013年加快推进新型城镇化的意见》提到要加快城镇化建设,以此做强产业促进就业,发挥工业主导作用,积极发展吸纳就业能力强的传统优势产业。四川是中国西部大省,合理高效进行城镇化建设对于中国西部以及全国经济有着重要作用,从而出现一个理论问题,那就是城镇化的发展对就业结构有没有影响呢?如果有影响,会是怎样的影响?因此,研究城镇化对就业结构的转变是否有影响以及怎样在城镇化发展中促进就业与产业转移有着重要的理论与现实意义,也是本文的研究目的,希望可以为合理推进城镇化发展、优化产业和就业结构提供参考意见。在阅读了相关文献的基础上,本文试图对城镇化发展与就业结构的关系从理论方面和实证方面作较为深入地探讨,研究的主要内容如下。首先,对为什么要研究四川省城镇化发展与就业结构的关系进行选题说明,并对国内外的相关文献进行回顾和梳理,总结了前人的贡献和有待改进之处,提出了本文研究的切入点。其次,综合政策导向,提出一种更为合理的测度城镇化发展质量的方法,即建立一个全面的指标体系(包含人口就业、经济发展、城市建设、社会发展、居民生活、生态环境)用熵值法测度出四川省各市的城镇化发展的水平,以求全面反映城镇化的发展质量。再次,本文综合数据可得性和实际意义,选取非农就业比重作为就业结构指标,采用城镇化指标体系测度的从2008年到2012年四川省21个市的城镇化发展质量水平,建立面板数据模型,分析城镇化发展与就业结构之间的相互关系,在结合实际情况下对更好发展城镇化以及就业结构调整、劳动力等问题提供建议措施。最后,虽然本文的分析研究受到一些统计数据上的约束和其他方面的局限,但通过对城镇化与就业结构的关系进行深入分析,得到了以下主要结论。一、城镇化发展水平提高后,农村人口(多为劳动力)从农村向城镇转移,随着农村人口的转移,城镇人口得到增长,农村经济得到发展,农村人口增收,同样随着城镇化水平的不断提高,城镇地区非农就业岗位越来越多,基础设施建设越来越完善,工资水平越来越高,这会进一步带动农村人口的转移,促进城镇化发展,实现了良性循环。二、如果城镇化发展水平还未成熟,城镇产业提供的非农就业岗位高于农村的人口转移,就算在短时间内非农就业比重在提高,但是没有配套相关工作人员薪资待遇及租住房民生问题的改善,那么对提高城镇化发展质量影响也是有限的。三、在通过提高城镇化发展质量优化就业结构,引导劳动力的转移时,应注重城镇配套设施的完善和制度保障,消除农村劳动力流动障碍,同时也要注重在农业就业比重下降时投入农业科技和资金保障农业生产力的提升。本文具有以下特点。 1、建立城镇化发展指标体系,计算出全面发展的城镇化发展,单一采用城镇人口占比代表城镇化的发展水平不能全面体现政策导向要求的多方面发展要求的城镇化。本文选取关乎城镇化发展的六大类指标建立指标体系,分别计算出四川省21个市的城镇化发展质量,用这个综合指标来分析与就业结构的关系有着重要的实际意义,其中在赋予指标权重采用熵值法,即某项指标间各市间的差距越大则该指标在最终城镇化测度中得到的权重越大,得到的结果可以更好体现各市间的城镇化发展差异性。 2、在测度了城镇化质量后,建立时间、地区的面板模型进行分析,不仅扩大样本容量,提高实证分析结论的可信度,又能比较直观的反映和比较变量间的相互关系。本文存在的不足是,体现在面板数据模型根据检验结果的选择是随机效应模型,更多体现在分析四川省数据的关系,不能够有效分析各市城镇化发展与就业机构的相互关系并进行分类,这使本文的分析结果有了一定的局限性。
[Abstract]:This government has repeatedly called urbanization "the greatest potential for development in the next few decades", pointing out that it is the key factor for optimizing the employment structure and promoting industrial upgrading. In recent years, the urbanization process of Sichuan province has been advancing rapidly. Setting up a strong industry to promote employment and play an industrial leading role and actively develop a traditional advantage industry with strong employability. Sichuan is a big province in Western China. The rational and efficient construction of urbanization plays an important role in Western China and the national economy, which is a theoretical problem, that is, the development of urbanization to employment. How does the structure affect? If it has an impact, how will it affect it? Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study whether urbanization has an impact on the transformation of employment structure and how to promote employment and industry transfer in the development of urbanization. It is also the aim of this paper. The industry and employment structure provide reference.
On the basis of reading related literature, this paper tries to discuss the relationship between the urbanization development and the employment structure from the theoretical and empirical aspects. The main contents of this study are as follows.
First, the paper explains why we should study the relationship between the urbanization development and the employment structure in Sichuan Province, reviews and combs the relevant literature at home and abroad, summarizes the contributions of the predecessors and needs to be improved, and puts forward the breakthrough point of this study.
Secondly, comprehensive policy guidance, a more reasonable measure of the quality of urbanization development, that is to establish a comprehensive index system (including population employment, economic development, urban construction, social development, residential life, ecological environment) by entropy method to measure the level of urbanization in the cities of Sichuan Province, in order to reflect the cities and towns in an all-round way. The quality of the development.
Thirdly, this paper combines the data availability and practical significance, selects the non agricultural employment proportion as the employment structure index, uses the urbanization index system to measure the urbanization development quality level of 21 cities in Sichuan province from 2008 to 2012, establishes the panel data model, analyzes the relationship between the urbanization development and the employment structure, and combines the actual situation. Under the circumstances, we will provide suggestions for better development of urbanization and employment structure adjustment, labor force and other issues.
Finally, although the analysis and research of this paper is limited by some statistical constraints and other aspects, the following main conclusions are obtained through the in-depth analysis of the relationship between urbanization and employment structure.
First, after the development of urbanization, the rural population (mostly labor) is transferred from rural to town. With the transfer of the rural population, the urban population is growing, the rural economy is developing, and the rural population is increasing. With the continuous improvement of the urbanization level, more and more non farm employment Posts in urban areas and the construction of infrastructure are becoming more and more more and more. Perfect, the wage level is higher and higher. This will further promote the transfer of rural population, promote the development of urbanization, and achieve a virtuous circle.
Two, if the development level of urbanization is still immature, the non-agricultural employment posts provided by the urban industry are higher than the rural population transfer. Even in a short period of time, the non-agricultural employment proportion is increasing, but there is no improvement on the salary treatment of relevant staff and the livelihood of renting housing, which is also limited to the improvement of the quality of urbanization.
Three, in order to optimize the employment structure of urbanization development and guide the transfer of labor force, we should pay attention to the improvement of urban facilities and system guarantee, eliminate the obstacles of rural labor flow, and also pay attention to the promotion of agricultural science and technology and funds to ensure agricultural productivity when the proportion of agricultural employment is declining.
This article has the following characteristics.
1, to establish the development index system of urbanization, to calculate the development of urbanization in an all-round way, and to adopt the urbanization of urban population to represent the development level of urbanization, which can not fully reflect the requirements of the multi aspects of development of the policy orientation. This paper selects the index system which is related to the six categories of the development of urbanization, and calculates four respectively. The development quality of urbanization in the 21 cities of Sichuan Province has important practical significance to analyze the relationship with the employment structure with this comprehensive index. In which the entropy method is adopted to give the index weight, that is, the greater the gap between the cities among the indexes, the greater the weight of the index in the final urbanization measure, and the result can be better. There is a difference in the development of urbanization between cities.
2, after measuring the quality of urbanization, the time is established and the area panel model is analyzed. It not only expands the sample size, improves the reliability of the empirical analysis, but also can reflect and compare the relationship between the variables more intuitively.
The deficiency of this paper is that the selection of the panel data model is a random effect model, which is more reflected in the analysis of the relationship between the data in Sichuan Province, and can not effectively analyze the relationship between the urbanization development and the employment organizations in each city and classify them, which makes the results of this paper limited.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.21;F249.2

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