基于系统动力学的重庆市主城区商品住宅价格仿真研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 20:41

本文选题：商品住宅 + 系统动力学　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来，我国政府对住房制度进行了多次改革完善。目前，房地产行业在支撑我国经济发展中起着重要作用，怎样充分发挥房地产行业的带动作用，同时避免房地产泡沫的产生，是社会各界关心的热点问题。而其中商品住宅市场是房地产开发企业经营的重要场所，住宅价格的波动则直接影响房地产行业运营和国民经济发展。重庆市作为直辖市之一，近年来国民经济取得了高速发展，人均收入不断增加，居民对住宅的刚性需求被大量释放，商品住宅投资高速增长，供需双方的增长促成了重庆商品住宅市场快速发展。因此，对商品住宅价格进行系统的理论研究，对未来重庆市房地产业发展进行良性引导，显得十分紧迫而富于意义。论文首先分析了商品住宅价格的特征，根据房地产开发的流程探讨了商品住宅价格的构成，结合文献研究方法对商品住宅价格的影响因素进行了探讨；通过土地市场、商品住宅供应、商品住宅需求以及住宅价格对重庆市主城区商品住宅市场进行分析，总结出了重庆市主城区商品住宅市场的特点；其次，根据商品住宅价格影响因素以及重庆市主城区商品住宅市场的特点，运用系统动力学从人口、城市经济、住房价格构成等方面构建住宅价格因果反馈回路，分析各因素之间的反馈关系，并识别关键反馈回路；构建了重庆市主城区商品住宅价格系统动力学仿真模型，将重庆市主城区商品住宅价格系统划分为：需求子系统、供给子系统、价格子系统三个子系统，确定模型的各变量之间的方程式，同时，根据重庆市主城区1998年至2013年以来城市人口、人均住宅面积、土地成本、住宅销售量等历史数据，利用Vensim软件对重庆市主城区1998年至2013年间的商品住宅价格进行模拟，并对2014年至2018年的住宅价格进行预测；最后，选取税收、空置率、消费者预期、土地政策四个变量进行政策调控试验，，根据调控结果提出相应的政策建议。通过对重庆市主城区商品住宅价格仿真研究，可以为政府引导房地产市场的健康发展提供参考，同时促进房地产市场与社会经济协调发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and open policy, our country government has carried on many reforms to the housing system. At present, the real estate industry plays an important role in supporting the economic development of our country. How to give full play to the leading role of the real estate industry and avoid the emergence of the real estate bubble at the same time is a hot issue concerned by all walks of life. The commercial housing market is an important place for real estate development enterprises, and the fluctuation of housing price directly affects the operation of real estate industry and the development of national economy. As one of the municipalities directly under the Central Government, Chongqing has made rapid development of the national economy in recent years, the per capita income has been increasing, the rigid demand of residents for housing has been released in a large number, and the investment in commercial housing has increased at a high speed. The growth of both supply and demand contributed to the rapid development of the commodity housing market in Chongqing. Therefore, it is urgent and meaningful to conduct a systematic theoretical study on the commodity housing price and to guide the development of the real estate industry in Chongqing in the future. Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the commodity housing price, discusses the composition of the commodity housing price according to the process of real estate development, and discusses the influencing factors of the commodity housing price through the land market, combined with the literature research method. Commercial housing supply, commercial housing demand and housing price analysis of the main urban area of Chongqing commercial housing market, summed up the characteristics of the main urban area of Chongqing commercial housing market; secondly, According to the influencing factors of the commodity housing price and the characteristics of the commercial housing market in the main urban area of Chongqing, the paper constructs the causal feedback loop of the housing price from the aspects of population, urban economy, housing price composition and so on. This paper analyzes the feedback relationship among the factors and identifies the key feedback loop, constructs the dynamic simulation model of the commodity housing price system in the main urban area of Chongqing, and divides the commodity housing price system of the main urban area of Chongqing into: demand subsystem. Supply subsystem, price subsystem three subsystems, determine the equation between the variables of the model, at the same time, according to the urban population, per capita housing area, land cost since 1998 to 2013, Based on the historical data of housing sales and other historical data, this paper simulates the commodity housing prices in Chongqing's main urban area from 1998 to 2013, and forecasts the housing prices from 2014 to 2018. Finally, tax, vacancy rate and consumer expectations are selected. The four variables of land policy were tested and the corresponding policy suggestions were put forward according to the results of regulation and control. Through the simulation study on the commodity housing price in the main urban area of Chongqing, it can provide a reference for the government to guide the healthy development of the real estate market and promote the harmonious development of the real estate market and the social economy at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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