用系统科学和智能方法研究城市发展问题

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:02

本文选题：城镇化 + 复杂系统　；参考：《自动化学报》2015年06期

【摘要】：我国正处于城镇化的快速发展阶段.然而,在城镇化的过程中,决策者常常面临这样的问题:一个城市的资源能支撑多大的人口规模?对产业结构进行怎样的调整才能最大化释放人口承载力?下一年度的城市国内生产总值(Gross domestic product,GDP)增幅定为多少合理?GDP增幅与居民消费价格指数(Consumer price index,CPI)、就业的定量关系如何?财政投资应投向哪些领域才能最大程度地提高居民满意度?哪些决策影响城市协调发展?等等.如何在城镇化的大背景下化解上述难题,做好城市发展的顶层规划与设计,是一类重大而复杂的难题.针对此类问题,本文采用系统科学和智能方法,定性定量相结合,首先建立城市GDP、财政收入等关键指标的智能预报模型以及GDP增幅与CPI、就业的定量关系模型,在此基础上建立城市人口承载力与城市协调发展的优化决策模型,并针对我国某大型城市的若干重要决策场景进行了案例分析.结果表明,采用系统科学与智能方法,是研究和解决该类难题的新颖且行之有效的方法,相关成果有助于城市决策者提高决策水平,实现定性定量相结合的科学决策.
[Abstract]:Our country is in the rapid development stage of urbanization. However, in the process of urbanization, policy makers often face the question: how large a population can be supported by a city's resources? How to adjust the industrial structure in order to maximize the release of population carrying capacity? What is the reasonable rate of GDP growth for the next year?. What is the quantitative relationship between the GDP growth rate and the Consumer price Index (CPI)?. What is the quantitative relationship between employment and employment?. In what areas should financial investment be directed to maximize the satisfaction of residents? What decisions affect the coordinated development of cities? Wait. How to solve the above problems under the background of urbanization and how to do well the top planning and design of urban development is a kind of important and complex problems. Aiming at this kind of problem, this paper adopts the system science and intelligent method, combines qualitative and quantitative, establishes the intelligent forecast model of the key index such as city's GDP, fiscal revenue, and the quantitative relation model of GDP increase and CPI, employment, etc. On this basis, the optimal decision-making model of urban population carrying capacity and urban coordinated development is established, and some important decision-making scenarios of a large city in China are analyzed by case study. The results show that using system science and intelligent method is a novel and effective method to study and solve this kind of difficult problem. The related results can help urban decision makers to improve the level of decision-making and realize the scientific decision combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.
【作者单位】：清华大学自动化系;
【基金】：中国工程院重点咨询项目(2013-XZ-25)资助~~
【分类号】：F299.21

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