国际贸易对我国就业结构的影响

发布时间：2018-05-21 01:44

本文选题：国际贸易 + 就业结构　；参考：《西南政法大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的国际贸易在改革开放期间发展尤为迅速，1978年至2013年间我国出口总额增长逾200倍，2013年进出口总额首次冲破4万亿美元，，超过美国居世界首位。近年来我国外贸净出口对GDP增长的贡献保持在10%左右，国际贸易在促进国民经济发展的同时，也为国内创造了大量就业机会。我国就业量从1991年的58360万人增至2012年的76704万人，2013年上半年城镇新增就业人数达725万，呈现“逆增长”态势，但就业形势依然严峻。在遭遇金融危机冲击后的2009年我国城镇登记失业率涨至4.3%，之后有所下降，但2012年城镇登记失业率也高达到4.1%。就业是民生之本，也是国家宏观调控的重要目标，增进就业不仅在于量的提高，更在于就业结构的优化。目前，我国结构性失业问题严重，就业人口的产业分布和地区分布极不平衡。因此，在高对外贸易依存度下，考察国际贸易对我国就业总量和就业结构的影响有利于改善外贸政策，提高国际贸易广度和深度，并优化国内就业结构，促进改革的深化和国民经济的持续发展。本文在对国内外相关文献进行梳理、对国际贸易与就业相关理论进行总结、对我国对外贸易与就业的现状进行分析的基础上，利用全国31个省市数据建立动态面板模型，以对我国对外贸易对就业的影响进行全面考察。本文结构可分为五部分。第一部分为绪论，包括研究背景和意义、研究方法和主要内容、创新点和不足。第二部分为文献综述，主要包括就业结构变动理论、国际贸易对就业结构影响的实证研究，以及对现有理论与实证研究成果的评述。第三部分分析了我国国际贸易发展与就业结构的演变，其中还包括国际贸易影响就业结构的理论基础，以及国际贸易带动我国就业和改善就业结构所面临的问题。第四部分首先从理论模型的推导考察国际贸易对就业量的影响，其次通过建立动态面板模型利用相关数据实证分析国际贸易对我国就业总量、就业人口产业分布及区域分布的影响。第五部分为本文结论及政策建议。实证结果表明：第一，出口对我国就业具有显著正效应，但影响程度较小，而进口的增长阻碍了我国就业；第二，出口对我国三大产业就业量均具有显著正效应，其中出口对第一、二产业就业量的影响大于第三产业；第三，进口对三大产业的就业规模均具有显著负效应，其中进口对西部就业量的影响最大。第四，国际贸易对我国东中西三大区域就业量具有不同影响，其中进出口仅对西部有显著影响。最后，根据分析结果提出调整国际贸易政策、改善贸易结构和就业结构，进而促进就业增长的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China's international trade developed rapidly during the period of reform and opening up. Between 1978 and 2013, the total export volume of China increased by more than 200 times, and the total import and export volume of China exceeded $4 trillion for the first time in 2013, surpassing the United States' ranking first in the world. In recent years, the contribution of China's net foreign trade to GDP growth has remained at about 10%. While international trade promotes the development of the national economy, it also creates a large number of employment opportunities for China. The employment volume in China increased from 583.6 million in 1991 to 767.04 million in 2012. In the first half of 2013, the number of new jobs in cities and towns reached 7.25 million, showing a trend of "inverse growth", but the employment situation is still grim. After the financial crisis hit China's urban registered unemployment rate rose to 4.3 in 2009, then declined, but the urban registered unemployment rate reached 4.1 percent in 2012. Employment is not only the foundation of people's livelihood, but also the important goal of national macro-control. Increasing employment lies not only in the increase of quantity, but also in the optimization of employment structure. At present, the problem of structural unemployment in China is serious, and the industrial and regional distribution of employed population is very unbalanced. Therefore, under the high degree of dependence on foreign trade, studying the impact of international trade on China's total employment and employment structure is conducive to improving foreign trade policies, increasing the breadth and depth of international trade, and optimizing the domestic employment structure. We will promote the deepening of reform and the sustained development of the national economy. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, summarizing the relevant theories of international trade and employment, and analyzing the current situation of foreign trade and employment in China, the dynamic panel model is established by using the data of 31 provinces and cities. In order to our country foreign trade to the employment influence carries on the comprehensive inspection. The structure of this paper can be divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, including the research background and significance, research methods and main contents, innovation points and deficiencies. The second part is the literature review, including the theory of employment structure change, the empirical research on the impact of international trade on employment structure, and the review of the existing theoretical and empirical research results. The third part analyzes the development of China's international trade and the evolution of employment structure, including the theoretical basis of international trade affecting the employment structure, as well as the problems faced by international trade in promoting China's employment and improving the employment structure. In the fourth part, the influence of international trade on employment is investigated from the theoretical model, and then the total employment of China is analyzed by using the dynamic panel model. The influence of industrial distribution and regional distribution of employed population. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion. The empirical results show that: first, export has a significant positive effect on China's employment, but to a lesser extent, while the growth of imports hinders employment in China; second, export has a significant positive effect on the employment of the three major industries in China. The effect of export on the employment of the first and second industries is greater than that of the tertiary industry. Thirdly, the import has a significant negative effect on the employment scale of the three industries, among which the import has the greatest impact on the employment volume in the western region. Fourth, international trade has different influence on the employment volume of the three regions of east, west and west of China, among which import and export have significant influence only on the west. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to adjust the international trade policy, improve the trade structure and employment structure, and then promote the employment growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F249.2;F752

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