房地产价格波动对金融稳定影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 03:34

本文选题：房地产价格波动 + 金融稳定　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产行业本身资金密集型的特点使其与金融体系的产生了紧密的联系。一方面房地产市场的供给方和需求方都需要金融体系的支持；另一方面，房地产市场飞速发展所带来的高额利润也促使各类金融机构更加深入地渗透进房地产市场。然而，随着房地产行业与金融体系关联度的加深，金融机构变得更加容易暴露于房地产市场的风险中。我国目前处在房地产价格增长过快或房地产价格长期处于非正常高位状态，累积了一定的资产泡沫。因此，探讨房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响，对有效调控房地产价格波动，减缓房地产价格波动对金融稳定的冲击，具有重要的现实意义。本文在梳理了相关国内外研究成果的基础上，首先研究了房地产价格和金融稳定的相关理论，并详细分析了房地产价格波动影响金融稳定的机制。然后，本文回顾了国际上典型的由房地产价格波动引发的金融危机——日本泡沫经济的破灭和美国次贷危机，分析在实际经济运行中，房地产价格波动是如何对金融体系产生冲击的。在此基础上，本文选取了10个指标，通过层次分析法构建了反映我国金融状况的金融稳定指数。并运用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型，，从溢出效应视角检验我国房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响。最后针对理论、实证结果提出了相关政策建议。通过理论和实证研究，本文得出如下结论：首先，房地产价格波动主要通过财富效应机制、托宾Q效应机制、银行信贷机制以及影子银行机制影响金融体系的稳定性。其次，通过计算、分析金融稳定指数发现，我国金融体系的稳定性从2003年开始基本处于稳步上升的阶段，在2008年有一次明显下滑，于2010年开始重新缓慢升高，但我国金融体系仍存在潜在风险，值得关注。再次，通过实证发现房地产价格波动对金融稳定指数在均值和波动层面均存在溢出效应。最后，基于以上的研究分析，本文提出了调控房价平稳着陆，控制房地产风险向金融体系扩散的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The capital-intensive nature of the real estate industry makes it closely related to the financial system. On the one hand, the supply and demand of the real estate market need the support of the financial system; on the other hand, the high profits brought by the rapid development of the real estate market also urge all kinds of financial institutions to penetrate into the real estate market more deeply. However, as the relationship between the real estate industry and the financial system deepens, financial institutions become more vulnerable to the risks of the real estate market. Our country is in the real estate price growth too fast or the real estate price is in the abnormal high state for a long time at present, accumulated certain asset bubble. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to discuss the effect of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability, to regulate the real estate price fluctuation effectively and to slow down the impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability. Based on the research results at home and abroad, this paper firstly studies the theory of real estate price and financial stability, and analyzes the mechanism of real estate price fluctuation affecting financial stability in detail. Then, this paper reviews the typical international financial crisis caused by the fluctuation of real estate prices-the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and analyzes the actual economic operation. How the volatility of real estate prices impacts the financial system. On this basis, this paper selects 10 indexes, and constructs the financial stability index which reflects the financial situation of our country by Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). VAR-GARCH-BEKK model is used to test the impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability from the perspective of spillover effect. Finally, according to the theory, the empirical results put forward the relevant policy recommendations. Through theoretical and empirical research, this paper draws the following conclusions: firstly, the volatility of real estate prices mainly affects the stability of financial system through wealth effect mechanism, Tobin Q effect mechanism, bank credit mechanism and shadow banking mechanism. Secondly, through calculation and analysis of the financial stability index, we find that the stability of our financial system has been in a stage of steady increase since 2003. In 2008, there was a significant decline, and in 2010, the stability of the financial system began to rise slowly again. However, there are still potential risks in our financial system, which are worthy of attention. Thirdly, it is found that real estate price volatility has spillover effects on the average and volatility levels of the financial stability index. Finally, based on the above research and analysis, this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations to control the stable landing of house prices and to control the spread of real estate risks to the financial system.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832

【参考文献】