中国城市规模偏差研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 07:20

本文选题：城市规模 + 集聚效应　；参考：《中国工业经济》2015年04期

【摘要】：有别于探讨单个城市最优(绝对)规模的研究,本文从城市体系角度,运用Gibrat对数正态分布定律,以2011年为例,检验中国287个地级以上城市的实际规模与理论规模偏差,并划分出偏大、合理和偏小三种类型:偏大城市集中在300万以上人口规模的特大城市,偏小城市集中在人口规模100万左右的中等城市,而通常以绝对规模衡量的人口50万以下的小城市却相对合理。进一步地,构造居民效用最大化目标函数,分析市场机制下的集聚效应和政府引导下的公共服务对城市规模偏差的影响。多元Logistic回归结果表明:偏大城市由显著的集聚效应和优越的公共服务共同引致,其中,集聚效应通过提高生产效率、促进多样化就业和提升工资水平等途径推进城市规模过度增长,然而拥挤效应开始显现;相对偏小的中等城市尽管有一定的集聚效应,但滞后的教育、医疗等公共服务却制约了城市规模的合理增长。该结果间接表明,绝对规模小的城市因具有的公共服务功能超越了经济发展功能而相对合理。因此,中国城市体系优化的重点是加快发展具有一定集聚效应而公共服务相对滞后的中等城市。
[Abstract]:Different from the study of the optimal (absolute) scale of a single city, this paper, from the perspective of urban system, applies the law of logarithmic normal distribution of Gibrat, taking 2011 as an example, to test the deviation between the actual scale and the theoretical scale of 287 cities above the prefectural level in China. There are three types of large, reasonable and small cities: the larger cities are concentrated in the megacities with a population size of more than 3 million, and the smaller cities are concentrated in the medium-sized cities with a population size of about 1 million. Smaller cities with populations below 500000, usually measured in absolute terms, are relatively reasonable. Furthermore, we construct the objective function of maximizing the utility of the residents, and analyze the agglomeration effect under the market mechanism and the influence of the public service under the guidance of the government on the deviation of the urban scale. The results of multiple Logistic regression show that the large cities are caused by the obvious agglomeration effect and superior public service, among which, the agglomeration effect increases the production efficiency. The overgrowth of urban scale is promoted by means of promoting diversified employment and raising wage level, however, the crowding effect is beginning to appear; the relatively small middle cities have some agglomeration effect, but the education lags behind. Medical and other public services have restricted the reasonable growth of urban scale. The results indirectly show that the absolute small cities are relatively reasonable because their public service functions exceed the function of economic development. Therefore, the focus of China's urban system optimization is to accelerate the development of medium-sized cities with a certain agglomeration effect and relatively lagging public services.
【作者单位】：南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“双重集聚外部性驱动下我国城市群的经济空间结构演变与政策引导”(批准号71473115) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“长三角‘一核九带'均衡协调发展研究”(批准号12JJD790034) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“支撑未来中国经济增长的新战略区域研究”(批准号14ZDA024)
【分类号】：F299.2

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