东盟国家资本流入的经济增长效应比较

发布时间：2018-05-28 05:45

本文选题：资本流入 + 经济增长　；参考：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：上世纪八十年代以来,新加坡、马来西亚等东盟国家相继实行浮动汇率制度,开放资本账户,积极引入国际资本发展本国经济。正如钱纳里所述,资本流入弥补了发展中国家的储蓄缺口和外汇缺口,带动了这些国家的经济发展。随着东盟经济不断发展,金融市场不断完善,该地区日渐成为国际投资的热土。2010年中国—东盟自由贸易区建立后,中国与东盟的经济合作在贸易一体化的基础上,正逐步向金融、投资等领域不断拓展和深入。如何引导中国资本走向东盟,已经成为一个重要议题。资本总是倾向于流到边际收益高的地方。而不同国家、不同产业、不同市场的边际收益存在着巨大差异,难以统一衡量和比较。因此,本文运用资本的经济增长效应大致衡量各国资本流入的收益,并对东盟各国资本流入的经济增长效应进行比较,进而为中国资本流向东盟提供参考依据。文章在理论部分梳理了不同类型资本流动对东道国经济增长的影响机制。随后在现状描述部分简要介绍了东盟国家资本流入的情况,并运用图表直观地描绘了不同类型的资本流入占GDP的比重与东盟各国经济增长的关系。在实证部分,运用VAR模型和格兰杰因果关系检验考察了各国资本流入对经济增长的影响。主要结论有：对多数国家而言,国际直接投资流入的长期经济增长效应为正；国际证券投资流入对新加坡和马来西亚经济增长的影响较大；FOI对新加坡经济增长的影响较大等等。本文最后一章政策建议部分总结东盟国家资本流入的经济增长效应,为我国资本流向东盟国家提供合理的策略和政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980s, Singapore, Malaysia and other ASEAN countries have implemented floating exchange rate systems, opened their capital accounts, and actively introduced international capital to develop their economies. As Chanari points out, capital inflows make up for savings and foreign exchange gaps in developing countries, driving their economies. With the continuous development of the ASEAN economy and the continuous improvement of the financial market, the region is becoming a hot spot for international investment. After the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN is based on the integration of trade. It is gradually expanding and deepening into finance, investment and other fields. How to guide Chinese capital to ASEAN has become an important issue. Capital always tends to flow to places with high marginal returns. But the marginal income of different countries, different industries and different markets has great differences, so it is difficult to measure and compare it uniformly. Therefore, this paper uses the economic growth effect of capital to roughly measure the income of capital inflow in various countries, and compares the economic growth effect of capital inflow in ASEAN countries so as to provide a reference basis for Chinese capital flowing to ASEAN. In the theoretical part, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of different types of capital flow on the host country's economic growth. Then the paper briefly introduces the situation of capital inflow in ASEAN countries in the description of current situation, and uses the graph to describe the relationship between the proportion of capital inflow to GDP and the economic growth of ASEAN countries. In the empirical part, VAR model and Granger causality test are used to examine the impact of capital inflow on economic growth. The main conclusions are as follows: for most countries, the long-term economic growth effect of international direct investment inflow is positive, and the impact of international portfolio investment inflow on the economic growth of Singapore and Malaysia is greater than that of FOI on Singapore's economic growth. The last chapter of this paper summarizes the economic growth effect of capital inflow in ASEAN countries and provides reasonable strategies and policy suggestions for China's capital flow to ASEAN countries.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F833;F133

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