出口市场不确定性和中国出口贸易边际

发布时间：2018-05-28 04:37

本文选题：不确定性 + 拓展边际　；参考：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国作为经济大国，近年来的出口贸易总额高速增长引起全球关注，同时2008年的经济危机暴露了中国出口贸易增长的脆弱性。贸易的二元边际是在新新贸易理论的框架下发展起来的概念，将出口贸易分解为拓展边际和集约边际有利于理解贸易增长机制以及贸易增长带来的福利效应。根据企业异质性理论，企业在出口过程中会面临一个沉没的固定成本和一个可变成本，而企业进入出口市场的条件是企业所产生的可变利润能够弥补其进入出口市场的固定成本。该条件意味着企业进入出口市场需要达到一个生产率的门槛值。因此，企业在面临不确定的市场时，其面临的可变贸易成本较小，所以我们直观推断会有更多的企业进入该市场，从而导致该市场企业的拓展边际较大。本文借鉴陈勇兵等（2012）多产品情况下拓展的引力模型，建立了与直观推断一致的理论模型。本文在此理论模型的基础上，以2000-2006年中国海关总署企业层面进出口数据（CLFTTD）和Polity IV (Marshall and Jaggers,2004)中的综合政治体制指数等数据为基础，从不确定性的角度研究中国出口企业出口贸易的二元边际。以出口目的国的综合政治体制指数衡量各国出口市场的不确定性。实证分析结果表明出口市场不确定性越大，中国企业在出口过程中所面临的可变贸易成本将越大，在这种情况下出口总量的变化将表现在集约边际和拓展边际上。我们使用Probit模型分析了出口市场不确定性对企业在出口市场是否能持续的影响，通过不同年份的回归对实证结果做了稳健性检验。Probit回归系数为正，且结果显著，我们可以得到以下结论：综合政治指数对企业出口关系的持续有正的影响。并利用经典的OLS回归检验了不确定性对出口拓展边际的影响。通过2006年中国出口企业对其他国家出口量增长的分解，将其分解成为集约边际增长和拓展边际增长，，并计算两个边际额增长对出口总量增长的贡献率可以得到以下结论：综合政治体制指数越大的国家，表明企业对该国出口所面临的不确定性越小，其出口拓展边际的增长对贸易增长的贡献率越大。
[Abstract]:As an economic power, the rapid growth of China's export trade in recent years has aroused global concern, and the economic crisis in 2008 exposed the fragility of China's export trade growth. The dual marginal of trade is a concept developed under the framework of new and new trade theory. It is beneficial to understand the mechanism of trade growth and the welfare effect brought by trade growth by dividing export trade into expanding margin and intensive marginal. According to the theory of enterprise heterogeneity, enterprises will face a sunk fixed cost and a variable cost in the export process. And the condition that the enterprise enters the export market is that the variable profit generated by the enterprise can compensate for the fixed cost of entering the export market. This condition means that firms entering the export market need to reach a productivity threshold. Therefore, in the face of uncertain market, the variable trade cost is small, so we intuitively infer that more enterprises will enter the market, thus leading to a larger margin of expansion of the market. Based on the gravitational model developed by Chen Yongbing et al. (2012), a theoretical model consistent with intuitionistic inference is established. On the basis of this theoretical model, this paper bases on the data of China Customs Administration's import and export data at the enterprise level from 2000 to 2006 (CLFTTD) and Polity IV Marshall and Jaggers2004). This paper studies the dualistic margin of export trade of Chinese export enterprises from the angle of uncertainty. The uncertainty of export markets is measured by the comprehensive political system index of destination countries. The empirical results show that the greater the uncertainty of the export market, the greater the variable trade cost faced by Chinese enterprises in the export process. In this case, the change of the total export volume will be manifested in the intensive margin and the expansion margin. We use the Probit model to analyze the impact of uncertainty in export market on the sustainability of enterprises in export market. Through the regression of different years, we make a robust test of the empirical results. The probit regression coefficient is positive, and the results are significant. We can draw the following conclusion: the composite political index has a positive impact on the export relationship of enterprises. The influence of uncertainty on export expansion margin is tested by classical OLS regression. Through the decomposition of export volume growth of other countries by Chinese export enterprises in 2006, it can be divided into intensive marginal growth and expanding marginal growth. By calculating the contribution rate of the two marginal growth to the total export growth, we can draw the following conclusion: the larger the comprehensive political system index, the less uncertainty enterprises face to the export. The greater the contribution of the marginal growth of export expansion to the growth of trade.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.62;F224

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