我国短期国际资本流动与一线城市房地产价格变动之间的关系

发布时间：2018-05-28 19:53

本文选题：短期国际资本 + 房地产价格　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球资本市场逐渐向一体化和国际化方向发展以及各国金融衍生品市场的快速发展,国际资本的跨境流动不仅规模越来越大而且更加频繁,FDI已经不再是资本流动的主要途径。在这些流动的国际资本中,短期国际资本逐渐变成国际资金流动的主要形式,规模迅速发展,并且影响着一国乃至全球经济体的经济发展。目前,房地产市场日益成为支撑我国经济金融发展的基础产业。房地产开发投资在我国社会总投资中占据着较大比重,带动着上下游行业的投资发展。巨大的获利空间使得外资大量进入我国房地产市场,然而在20世纪90年代以来发生的几次金融危机中,短期国际资本大量外逃与这些国家房地产市场动荡都相伴而生。以90年代延续至今的日本经济危机、1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年由美国开始的国际金融危机为例,由于资金大量外逃,市场资金供给出现紧缩,同时监管部门不断出台冲销手段,两者加剧导致资金成本的上升,作为资本密集型的房地产业在这历次金融危机中都产生资金链危机。考虑到房地产市场对我国经济、金融的重要性,以及历次资本外逃导致的房地产市场危机,因此,研究我国短期国际资本流动与房地产价格变动之间的关系不仅具有理论意义,也有现实意义。本文采用VAR模型对2003年至2013年我国一线城市房地产价格和短期国际资本流动月度数据进行实证分析。本文得出以下主要结论,我国房地产价格变动对我国短期国际资本流动有显著的影响。此外,我国短期国际资本流动的变化不会几乎不会对我国房地产价格产生影响。相对于我国短期国际资本流动规模变动,我国房地产价格变动对自身的影响程度更大。现阶段我国短期国际资本的大量流出属于正常流动范畴,不会引发房地产市场危机,更不会引起我国金融危机的爆发。针对实证结果,本文认为我国政府需要注重以下几点：第一,改善短期国际资本流动监管体系；第二,规范短期国际资本流动领域。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of global capital markets towards integration and internationalization and the rapid development of financial derivatives markets in various countries, The cross-border flow of international capital is not only increasing in scale but also more frequent FDI is no longer the main way of capital flow. Among these flows of international capital, short-term international capital gradually becomes the main form of international capital flow, the scale of rapid development, and affects the economic development of a country and even the global economy. At present, the real estate market has increasingly become the basic industry supporting the economic and financial development of our country. The investment of real estate development occupies a large proportion in the total investment of our society, and drives the investment development of upstream and downstream industries. The huge profit space makes the foreign capital enter the real estate market of our country in large quantities. However, in several financial crises since the 1990s, a large amount of short-term international capital flight comes along with the turbulence of these countries' real estate market. Take the Japanese economic crisis that continued in the 1990s, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the international financial crisis started by the United States in 2008 as an example. As a result of a large number of capital flight, the supply of funds in the market has been tightened, and the regulatory authorities have constantly introduced sterilisation measures. As a capital-intensive real estate industry, capital chain crisis occurred in every financial crisis. Considering the importance of the real estate market to our economy and finance, as well as the crisis of the real estate market caused by the capital flight, it is not only of theoretical significance to study the relationship between the short-term international capital flow and the real estate price change in our country. It also has practical significance. This paper uses VAR model to analyze the monthly data of real estate prices and short-term international capital flows in first-tier cities from 2003 to 2013. This paper draws the following main conclusions: the change of real estate price has a significant impact on the short-term international capital flow in China. In addition, the change of the short-term international capital flow will hardly affect the real estate price of our country. Compared with the change of the scale of short-term international capital flow, the change of real estate price in our country has a greater impact on itself. At present, the large outflow of short-term international capital in China belongs to the category of normal flow, which will not lead to the crisis of real estate market, nor will it cause the outbreak of financial crisis in our country. Based on the empirical results, this paper argues that our government should pay attention to the following points: first, to improve the supervision system of short-term international capital flows; second, to regulate the field of short-term international capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.51

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