A花园小区建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 14:04

本文选题：建设项目 + 风险管理　；参考：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的快速发展，房地产行业发展迅猛，在房地产项目建设过程中，难免会遇到来自各个方面的风险因素的影响，为了规避和降低这些风险因素对于项目实施的影响，做好项目风险管理越来越重要。随着项目管理理论体系的不断完善，国内外风险管理相关理论方法也在进一步发展中，逐渐发展成为一门综合性学科。然而，我国在房地产建设项目风险管理的应用上还处于起步阶段，相对于国外发达国家还存在一定的差距，因此，房地产开发企业必须认真审视和充分认识到项目风险管理在房地产建设项目中的重要价值。本文以A花园小区建设项目为研究对象，运用项目风险管理理论和方法对其进行了实证分析，主要研究内容如下：首先，阐述了本文的选题背景、研究意义、国内外风险管理研究现状，介绍了A花园小区建设项目基本情况，提出了本文的研究方法、研究内容及结构框架；其次，阐述了项目管理、项目风险管理、项目风险分析方法等理论基础；再次，识别出A花园小区建设项目决策阶段、准备阶段、实施阶段、经营阶段存在的主要风险因素，在此基础上，建立了A花园小区建设项目风险评价指标体系，运用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价方法对项目风险做出评价，经过一级模糊综合评价、二级模糊综合评价、项目风险属性识别，最终确定该项目的风险程度为一般；最后，提出A花园小区建设项目风险应对措施，在项目决策阶段，要强化市场调研活动、采用科学方法确定项目估算、加强市场分析和预测、做好财务分析和现金流预测、健全风险预警系统；在项目准备阶段，要重视项目设计方案的经济分析、做好项目施工招标工作、加强项目施工合同管理、强化与各方沟通交流、做好项目实施前的市场预测；在项目实施阶段，要加强施工安全管理和特种设备的检测、有效控制工程变更、及时支付工程价款、工程量变化的价款确定与调整、核实工程变更和签证、协调工期、质量和成本的合理关系、注重档案管理并建立预测机制；在项目经营阶段，要做好竞争项目的调研分析、加强市场趋向和政策预测研究、选择合理的营销模式。本文的创新点在于运用项目风险管理理论和方法对A花园小区建设项目进行了实证分析，，在识别项目四个阶段风险因素的基础上，建立了项目风险评价指标体系，运用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价方法对项目风险做出评价，判定该项目的风险程度为一般，进而有针对性的提出了具体的项目风险应对措施，可为项目建设企业实施风险管理提供理论方法指导和案例经验参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid development of the real estate industry, in the process of real estate project construction, it is inevitable to meet the impact of various risk factors, in order to avoid and reduce the impact of these risk factors on the implementation of the project. Project risk management is becoming more and more important. With the continuous improvement of the project management theory system, the related theories and methods of risk management at home and abroad are developing further, and gradually develop into a comprehensive subject. However, the application of risk management in real estate construction projects in China is still in its infancy, and there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries, so, Real estate development enterprises must carefully examine and fully realize the important value of project risk management in real estate construction projects. This paper takes the construction project of A Garden District as the research object, uses the project risk management theory and method to carry on the empirical analysis to it, the main research content is as follows: first, elaborated this article the topic background, the research significance, The present situation of risk management research at home and abroad, the basic situation of the construction project of Garden A, the research method, the research content and the structure frame are put forward. Secondly, the project management, the project risk management, the risk management of the project are introduced. Third, identify the main risk factors in the decision stage, preparation stage, implementation stage and management stage of the construction project of Garden A, and then identify the main risk factors in the stage of project risk analysis. The risk evaluation index system of A garden community construction project is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the project risk. After the first grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the second grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to evaluate the project risk. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to deal with the risk of the construction project in Garden A area. In the decision-making stage of the project, the market research activities should be strengthened, and the project estimation should be determined by scientific method. Strengthening market analysis and forecasting, making good financial analysis and cash flow forecasting, and improving the risk early warning system; in the stage of project preparation, we should attach importance to the economic analysis of project design schemes, do a good job in bidding for construction projects, and strengthen the management of project construction contracts. Strengthen communication and communication with all parties, make market forecast before project implementation, strengthen construction safety management and special equipment inspection, effectively control project changes, and pay project price promptly, during the project implementation phase, To determine and adjust the price of project quantity change, to verify the project change and visa, to coordinate the reasonable relationship between time limit, quality and cost, to pay attention to file management and to establish a forecasting mechanism, to do well the investigation and analysis of competitive projects during the project management phase, Strengthen the research of market trend and policy forecast and choose reasonable marketing model. The innovation of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to make an empirical analysis on the construction project of Garden A, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors in the four stages of the project, the index system of project risk evaluation is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to evaluate the risk of the project, and the risk degree of the project is judged as general, and then the concrete measures to deal with the project risk are put forward. It can provide theoretical guidance and case reference for project construction enterprises to implement risk management.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU71;F299.233.4

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