两阶段软件发布管理中的最优质量与定价——顾客需求不确定条件下的分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 12:47

本文选题：顾客需求不确定性 + 多阶段软件产品发布　；参考：《中国管理科学》2015年02期

【摘要】：软件厂商广泛采用多阶段产品发布策略应对不确定的顾客需求。为了研究需求不确定性对厂商决策的影响,构建了一个两阶段框架:垄断厂商在第一阶段向异质顾客推出质量较低的产品,通过产品的使用,将不确定的顾客需求变得更为明确,然后在第二阶段推出升级产品满足这些需求。将厂商的决策定义为受需求不确定性影响的最优化模型,将第一阶段的质量与两个阶段的定价作为决策变量,分析厂商在需求不确定条件下的最优决策。数值实验表明,需求不确定性越大,第一阶段的质量和两个阶段的定价越低。当需求不确定性非常大,且负口碑效应强度超过正口碑效应强度时,厂商在第一阶段就不应该推出软件产品。本文为信息商品领域内的厂商在不能准确把握顾客需求时的决策提供支持。
[Abstract]:Multi-stage product release strategy is widely used by software manufacturers to deal with uncertain customer needs. In order to study the influence of demand uncertainty on firms' decision, a two-stage framework is constructed: monopoly firms introduce low-quality products to heterogeneous customers in the first stage, through the use of products. The uncertain customer needs become clearer and then the upgrade product is introduced in the second phase to meet these needs. The decision of the firm is defined as the optimization model affected by the uncertainty of the demand. The quality of the first stage and the pricing of the two stages are taken as the decision variables to analyze the optimal decision of the firm under the condition of uncertain demand. Numerical experiments show that the higher the demand uncertainty, the lower the quality of the first stage and the lower the pricing of the two stages. When the demand uncertainty is very large and the negative word-of-mouth effect is higher than the positive word-of-mouth effect, the manufacturer should not launch software products in the first stage. This paper provides the support for the decision of the manufacturers in the field of information goods when they can not accurately grasp the customer's needs.
【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;中国邮政集团公司培训中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金(70925005)
【分类号】：F274;F49;F224

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