我国旅游服务贸易的就业效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 12:48

本文选题：服务贸易 + 旅游服务贸易　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国旅游服务贸易得到了长足发展，已经成为我国国际服务贸易的支柱。但是近年来，作为服务贸易中重要组成部分的旅游服务贸易，外汇收入出现大幅逆差。我国的就业人口数量近几年增长缓慢，增项率逐年减少。本文旨在分析旅游服务贸易贸易的就业效应。通过对贸易学中传统理论的整理与探索，为旅游服务贸易的就业效应奠定理论基础，并运用国际经济学的传统理论构建了旅游服务贸易对就业影响的模型。通过对旅游服务贸易在进出口、就业人口和旅游相关行业收入的机理分析发现旅游服务贸易出口一方面通过入境旅游的直接消费增加本国消费需求，从而增加就业，另一方面增加了对本国先关产业的投资，扩大产业发展，也增加了就业。旅游服务贸易进口对本国旅游有替代效应，短期内对就业有负效应，但是在长期中对就业有利。对旅游服务贸易的发展现状和我国就业状况进行了分析。认为我国旅游服务贸易对我国就业增长有一定的带动作用，同时对我国近几年就业增长减缓也起到一定的作用。采用1997年～2012年旅游服务贸易的进口额、出口额、劳动工资、我国就业人口数量以及旅游业的产值作为原始数据，并用以1978年为基期的消费者价格指数对劳动工资进行平减以去除价格指数对数据的影响，得到劳动人口实际取得的真实工资。运用多元线性回归及误差修正模型对我国旅游服务贸易与我国就业之间的关系进行实证分析，得出结论：长期中，旅游服务贸易的出口额和进口额每增加一个百分点，分别会带来我过就业人口0.034808个百分点和0.005803个百分点的增长，两者均为正向的促进作用；短期内，，旅游服务贸易的进口额和出口额对我国就业影响较小，分别为0.154246和-0.100557。旅游服务贸易的进口对全国就业增长起正向效应，旅游服务贸易出口对我国就业起到负向效应，说明短期内我国旅游服务贸易对我国就业的影响很不稳定。同时，Granger因果检验的结果揭示了旅游服务贸易的进口和出口都在一定程度上构成了我国就业人口的原因所在。最后，本文分别从政府层面、产业层面和企业层面提出了大力发展旅游服务贸易，促进就业增长的政策建议：政府层面，积极鼓励旅游服务贸易出口，限制旅游服务贸易进口，鼓励旅游业及其相关产业发展，提高旅游服务业及相关产业就业人口素质，大力发展展会旅游；产业层面，建立健全旅游服务产业链建设，建设入境旅游者服务产业，加强旅游产品开发；企业层面，提供具有国际特色的旅游服务，完善用人机制，积极加强与相关企业的合作。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's tourism service trade has developed rapidly and has become the pillar of China's international service trade. But in recent years, as an important part of service trade, foreign exchange income has a large deficit. The number of employed population in our country has been increasing slowly in recent years, and the increase rate is decreasing year by year. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the employment effect of tourism service trade. Through the collation and exploration of the traditional theories in the field of trade, this paper lays a theoretical foundation for the employment effect of tourism service trade, and constructs a model of the influence of tourism service trade on employment by using the traditional theory of international economics. By analyzing the mechanism of tourism service trade in import and export, employment population and tourism related industries, it is found that on the one hand, tourism service trade exports increase domestic consumption demand through direct consumption of inbound tourism, thereby increasing employment. On the other hand, increased investment in domestic industries, expansion of industrial development, but also increased employment. The import of tourism service trade has a substitution effect on domestic tourism, a negative effect on employment in the short term, but a favorable effect on employment in the long run. This paper analyzes the present situation of tourism service trade and the employment situation of our country. It is believed that China's tourism service trade has a certain driving effect on the employment growth in China, and it also plays a certain role in slowing down the employment growth in China in recent years. The original data are the import value, export value, labor wage, the number of employed population and the output value of tourism industry from 1997 to 2012. With the consumer price index in 1978 as the base period, the labor wage is reduced to remove the influence of the price index on the data, and the real wage of the working population is obtained. By using multiple linear regression and error correction model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism service trade and employment in China, and concludes that in the long run, the export value and import value of tourism service trade increase by one percentage point. It will bring the increase of 0.034808% and 0.005803% of our employed population respectively, both of which are positive promoters. In the short run, the import and export of tourism service trade have little effect on employment of our country, which are 0.154246 and -0.100557respectively. The import of tourism service trade has a positive effect on the employment growth of the whole country, and the export of tourism service trade has a negative effect on the employment of our country, which indicates that the impact of China's tourism service trade on China's employment is very unstable in the short term. At the same time, the Granger causality test reveals that the import and export of tourism service trade to some extent constitute the cause of employment population in China. Finally, from the government level, the industrial level and the enterprise level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to develop tourism service trade and promote employment growth. At the government level, we should actively encourage the export of tourism service trade and restrict the import of tourism service trade. To encourage the development of tourism and its related industries, to improve the quality of the employed population in the tourism service industry and related industries, to vigorously develop exhibition tourism, to establish and improve the tourism service industry chain at the industrial level, and to build up the inbound tourist service industry, Strengthen the development of tourism products, provide tourism services with international characteristics at the enterprise level, improve the employment mechanism, and actively strengthen cooperation with related enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592;F752.68;F249.2

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