湖南农村金融稳定性的测度及影响因素探究

发布时间：2018-06-23 21:12

本文选题：农村金融稳定性 + 综合评价　；参考：《中南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：农村金融是新时期我国金融改革的重要内容之一,是实现我国农村经济健康可持续发展及广大农民生活水平提升的关键所在,同时对于我国整体经济的发展起着重要作用。如何进一步深化我国农村金融体制的改革,维护我国农村金融的稳定发展成为当前我国重要的一项重大研究课题。本文构建了农村金融稳定性的指标体系和测度模型,并对湖南地区农村金融稳定性进行了测度。基于综合评价结果,重点分析了农村金融效率和金融发展规模对金融稳定性的影响。基于农村金融稳定性的内涵和金融稳定相关理论,从金融环境、金融基础和金融机构三个层面对农村金融稳定性的指标体系进行构建。进一步,结合数据的客观特性,利用因子分析得到对应的客观权重。同时,采用群决策层次分析法得到指标的主观权重,并利用乘法归一原理得到综合权重。以湖南省为例,对其1997-2012年的农村金融稳定性程度进行了测度研究。结果显示,湖南省农村金融稳定性呈现稳步上升趋势,但2009年出现短暂的下降,这可能源于2008年金融危机的滞后影响。基于湖南省农村金融稳定性评价结果,利用误差修正模型实证检验了农村金融效率与金融发展规模对农村金融稳定性的影响。结果显示,农村金融效率和农村金融发展规模均与农村金融稳定性存在长期协整关系。此外,农村金融效率和发展规模是农村金融稳定性的单向格兰杰原因,且资本边际生产率与农村金融稳定性存在双向格兰杰因果关系。结合实证结果,构建了湖南地区农村金融稳定的维护机制。其中,维护机制包括产品创新机制、信用机制、监管机制、金融法律机制和经营管理机制。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: rural finance is one of the important contents of China's financial reform in the new period. It is the key to realize the healthy and sustainable development of rural economy and the improvement of peasants' living standard. At the same time for the overall economic development of our country plays an important role. How to further deepen the reform of rural financial system and maintain the stable development of rural finance in China has become an important research topic. This paper constructs the index system and measurement model of rural financial stability, and measures the stability of rural finance in Hunan. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results, this paper analyzes the impact of rural financial efficiency and financial development scale on financial stability. Based on the connotation of rural financial stability and related theories of financial stability, the index system of rural financial stability is constructed from three aspects: financial environment, financial foundation and financial institutions. Furthermore, combining the objective characteristics of the data, the corresponding objective weights are obtained by factor analysis. At the same time, the subjective weight of the index is obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process of group decision, and the comprehensive weight is obtained by the principle of multiplicative normalization. Taking Hunan Province as an example, the paper measures the degree of rural financial stability from 1997 to 2012. The results showed that the rural financial stability in Hunan Province showed a steady upward trend, but there was a brief decline in 2009, which may be due to the lagging impact of the 2008 financial crisis. Based on the evaluation results of rural financial stability in Hunan Province, the effects of rural financial efficiency and scale of financial development on rural financial stability are tested by error correction model. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the rural financial efficiency and the scale of rural financial development and the stability of rural finance. In addition, rural financial efficiency and development scale are the one-way Granger reasons of rural financial stability, and there is a two-way Granger causality between capital marginal productivity and rural financial stability. Based on the empirical results, the maintenance mechanism of rural financial stability in Hunan is constructed. Among them, maintenance mechanism includes product innovation mechanism, credit mechanism, supervision mechanism, financial legal mechanism and management mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.35

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