中国城镇化水平的决定因素:基于国际经验

发布时间：2018-06-24 18:25

本文选题：城镇化水平 + 均衡模型　；参考：《世界经济》2015年06期

【摘要】：本文在传统城镇化理论模型中引入城镇聚集成本和农村人口迁移成本,建立了城镇化水平决定的预期收益一成本(非)均衡模型。然后基于92个国家1980—2010年的面板数据,从经济和制度两方面揭示决定城镇化水平的影响因素。我们发现,经济发展水平和劳动参与率越高,第一产业比重越小,民众自由度越大,高等教育普及率水平越高,一国的城镇化水平也就越高;而无论是根据OECD国家还是非OECD国家的经验,中国的实际城镇化水平远低于国际经验下的合意城镇化水平。进一步的分析表明,阻碍中国城镇化进程的并非是经济发展和经济结构因素,而是诸如人口户籍管理这样的制度性因素,因而破除户籍制度势在必行。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the cost of urban agglomeration and the cost of rural population migration are introduced into the traditional theory model of urbanization, and the expected revenue-cost (non-equilibrium) model of urbanization level is established. Then, based on the panel data of 92 countries from 1980 to 2010, the factors influencing the urbanization level are revealed from the economic and institutional aspects. We find that the higher the level of economic development and labor participation, the smaller the proportion of the primary industry, the greater the degree of freedom of the people, the higher the level of higher education popularization, the higher the level of urbanization in a country. However, according to the experience of OECD countries and non-OECD countries, China's actual urbanization level is far lower than the desired urbanization level under the international experience. Further analysis shows that it is not economic development and economic structure that hinder the process of urbanization in China, but institutional factors such as population household registration management, so it is imperative to break up the household registration system.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院经济研究所;中山大学岭南学院;
【基金】：广东省高校高层次人才项目(珠江学者1414003) 博士研究生学术新人奖(10000-3191041) 国家开发银行委托课题“广东省新型城镇化的系统性融资安排”的支持
【分类号】：F299.21

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