PPP模式下公共基础设施项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 06:23

本文选题：公共基础设施项目 + 公私合营(PPP)模式　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,我们的国民经济、社会环境发展迅速,公共基础设施或公共服务项目建设在推进一个地区发展方面发挥的作用非常巨大。公私合营(PPP)融资模式在公共基础设施领域引入社会私营资本,解决地方乃至国家在财政投资中的缺口上扮演着重要的角色,并已逐步在我国的公共基础设施和公共服务项目建设领域得到广泛的发展应用。在公共基础设施建设项目的初期,对项目运作过程中可能存在的风险因素进行科学识别分析,对其进行全面、合理的评价,进而规划出风险应对措施,做好项目前期风险管理策划,为项目运作过程的顺利运行、最终实现项目目标打下坚实基础。本文在全面风险管理理论的基础上,通过理论综述研究与实践调研研究,定性分析和定量分析,识别出PPP项目运作过程中的风险因素并建立风险综合评价模型,以期为PPP项目前期风险管理策划过程中风险识别与评价提供理论上的参考,使其更加的贴合项目实际,更好的为PPP项目服务。本文首先在对PPP模式发展实践进行梳理总结及相关理论文献综述的基础上提出本文研究的PPP项目风险评价问题。然后深刻剖析了公共基础设施项目的特点、PPP模式的本质,在此基础上分析了PPP模式应用于公共基础设施项目上的优势。然后在全面风险管理理论的指导下,界定了PPP项目风险定义,进而通过理论与实践调研的综合方法识别出对我国公共基础设施项目顺利运作有重要影响的风险因素清单。然后在系统分析各种风险评价方法的基础上,根据PPP项目风险评价原则,确定采用层次分析法和灰色系统评价法对PPP模式下公共基础设施项目风险进行评价,构建了PPP项目风险评价模型。最后本文通过实践案例,对本文所建立的模型进行了实证分析,得到了项目风险因素的重要度排序,以及项目综合风险等级,从而为PPP项目决策及风险管理策划提供参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, our national economy and social environment have developed rapidly. The construction of public infrastructure or public service projects plays a very important role in promoting the development of a region. Public-private joint venture (PPP) financing model in the field of public infrastructure to introduce social and private capital, local and even the state in the financial investment gap plays an important role. And has gradually been widely used in the field of public infrastructure and public service projects in China. In the initial stage of public infrastructure construction project, the risk factors that may exist in the process of project operation are scientifically identified and analyzed, and the comprehensive and reasonable evaluation is carried out, and then the risk countermeasures are planned. Do a good job of project risk management planning, for the smooth operation of the project process, and ultimately to achieve the project objectives lay a solid foundation. Based on the theory of overall risk management, this paper identifies the risk factors in the process of PPP project operation and establishes a comprehensive risk evaluation model through theoretical review and practical research, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. In order to provide a theoretical reference for the risk identification and evaluation in the pre-risk management planning process of PPP project, make it more close to the project reality, better service for PPP project. Firstly, this paper puts forward the PPP project risk evaluation on the basis of combing and summarizing the development practice of PPP model and related theoretical literature. Then it deeply analyzes the characteristics of public infrastructure projects and the essence of PPP model, and then analyzes the advantages of PPP model applied to public infrastructure projects. Then, under the guidance of the comprehensive risk management theory, the PPP project risk definition is defined, and the list of risk factors which have important influence on the smooth operation of public infrastructure projects in China is identified by the comprehensive method of theoretical and practical investigation. Then, on the basis of systematic analysis of various risk assessment methods, according to the principles of PPP project risk evaluation, the AHP and grey system evaluation methods are adopted to evaluate the risk of public infrastructure projects under the PPP model. The risk evaluation model of PPP project is constructed. Finally, through practical cases, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the model established in this paper, and obtains the ranking of the importance of project risk factors, as well as the comprehensive risk level of the project, thus providing a reference for PPP project decision-making and risk management planning.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283

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