中国房地产市场深化程度的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 07:49

本文选题：房地产市场深化水平 + 指标体系　；参考：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：在相当长的时期内,房地产在中国不具有商品属性,而是在计划经济体制内实行福利住房分配制度和土地行政划拨制度。改革开放后,我国房地产市场才开始逐渐走向市场化道路。一系列房改政策的实施带动了房地产建筑、房地产金融和中介服务等产业的蓬勃发展,市场机制在住房资源的配置中也逐步发挥着更大的作用。本文通过对国内外市场化测度和房地产市场深化相关理论的深入分析,建立了测量我国房地产市场深化程度的指标体系,并最终合成了房地产市场深化程度相对指数。该指标体系主要针对房地产土地市场、房屋市场和金融市场等三个市场,通过考察其在市场交易、宏观调控、中介服务和法律保障以及对外开放等不同方面的市场深化水平,将其分为供给类指标、需求类指标、价格类指标和综合类指标(包括中介服务相关、法律保障相关和宏观调控相关),以此来反映整个房地产市场的市场深化度。文章共选取了土地有偿出让率、土地案件发生率、住房消费支出比等二十六项指标,并最终搜集到房价收入比、房地产开发企业中外资企业从业人员比例、房地产金融信贷比等十一项指标从1999-2011年的相关数据。通过各指标与房地产深化程度的不同相关性进行标准化处理,将其转换成反映房地产市场深化水平的单项指数。并邀请了十四位房地产研究方面专家和学者分别为各一级指标和二级指标的权重进行打分,最终由各二级指标根据专家打分确定的权重合成相应的一级指标指数,再由三个一级指标根据相应的权重合成最终的房地产市场深化程度相对指数。之后根据房地产市场深化程度相对指数分析我国从1999-2011年房地产市场化改革的发展水平,并进一步研究我国房地产土地市场、房地产房屋市场和房地产金融市场在市场成熟度方面有何差异和发展趋势,得到我国市场深化程度整体较高的是房屋市场,其次是土地市场和金融市场的结论。而总体来说各地区的房地产市场化水平都是在逐步提高,北京、上海、广东、海南等省份或直辖市的房地产深化程度排名则比较靠前。此外,通过对比东部、中部、西部和东北部等四个不同区域的房地产市场深化程度相对指数发现,我国四个区域的房地产市场深化程度相对指数从1999-2011年期间都呈现总体平稳上升的情况,其中东部地区的房地产市场化水平整体处于领先的地位,其次是西部地区、中部地区和东北部地区。最后通过聚类分析法把我国不同省份和直辖市的房地产市场深化程度分为四类,即房地产市场深化程度优良、房地产市场深化程度较高、房地产市场深化程度一般和房地产市场深化程度较低等四类,并分别因地制宜地对房地产土地市场、房屋市场和金融市场提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In a long period of time, real estate in China does not have the commodity attribute, but implements the welfare housing distribution system and the land administration transfer system in the planned economy system. After reforming and opening, our country real estate market begins to move toward marketization road gradually. The implementation of a series of housing reform policies has led to the vigorous development of real estate construction, real estate finance and intermediary services, and the market mechanism has gradually played a greater role in the allocation of housing resources. Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign market-oriented measures and the related theories of real estate market deepening, this paper establishes an index system to measure the deepening degree of real estate market in China, and finally synthesizes the relative index of the deepening degree of real estate market. The index system is mainly aimed at the real estate land market, the housing market and the financial market. By examining their market deepening levels in different aspects, such as market transactions, macro-control, intermediary services and legal protection, as well as opening to the outside world, It can be divided into supply index, demand index, price index and comprehensive index (including intermediary service correlation, law guarantee correlation and macro-control correlation), so as to reflect the market deepening degree of the whole real estate market. The paper selects 26 indexes, such as paid transfer rate of land, incidence of land cases, ratio of housing consumption and expenditure, and finally collects the ratio of house price to income and the proportion of employees in and foreign enterprises in real estate development enterprises. Real estate finance and credit ratio of 11 indicators from 1999-2011 related data. Through the different correlation between each index and the deepening degree of real estate, it is standardized to transform it into a single index reflecting the deepening level of real estate market. Fourteen experts and scholars in real estate research were invited to score the weights of the first class index and the second class index respectively, and the corresponding first-grade index was synthesized by each second-level index according to the weight determined by the expert score. Then the final relative index of the deepening degree of the real estate market is synthesized according to the corresponding weights of the three primary indexes. Then, according to the relative index of the deepening degree of the real estate market, we analyze the development level of the real estate market reform from 1999 to 2011, and further study the real estate land market in our country. What is the difference and development trend between the real estate housing market and the real estate financial market in terms of market maturity? the conclusion that the deepening degree of the market in our country is higher as a whole is the housing market, followed by the land market and the financial market. On the whole, the marketization level of real estate in various regions is gradually improving, while Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan and other provinces or municipalities are ranked higher in the degree of real estate deepening. In addition, by comparing the relative indices of the deepening degree of the real estate market in four different regions, the east, the middle, the west and the northeast, we find that, The relative index of the deepening degree of the real estate market in the four regions of our country has been rising steadily from 1999 to 2011, in which the market level of the real estate market in the eastern region is in the leading position as a whole, followed by the western region. Central and northeastern regions. Finally, through cluster analysis, the real estate market deepening degree of different provinces and municipalities in China is divided into four categories, that is, the real estate market deepening degree is excellent, the real estate market deepening degree is higher. The deepening degree of real estate market is generally and the deepening degree of real estate market is low, and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward according to local conditions respectively to the real estate land market, housing market and financial market.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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