主要进口国经济发展状况对中国价格贸易条件的影响分析

发布时间：2018-07-05 12:28

本文选题：价格贸易条件 + 劳动生产率　；参考：《暨南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：贸易条件是衡量国际贸易交换比例的主要指标，即一国出口每单位商品所能换取的进口商品数量。从20世纪50年代Prebisch和Singer提出“普雷维什—辛格”命题以来，很多经济学家开始关注对贸易条件的研究，发现发展中国家不论是出口初级产品还是出口制成品，其贸易条件都有恶化的趋势。学者们继而转向对影响贸易条件的因素探讨上，，中国作为最大的发展中国家，成为研究的重点国家。随着自由贸易和全球化趋势的蔓延，中国越来越多地参与到了国际分工的合作中，与世界上其他主要经济体之间建立了密切的经济贸易往来关系，对外依赖程度很高，又由于中国的出口贸易优势正在逐渐被其他发展中国家替代，本文欲从进口贸易政策的角度去探讨改善中国价格贸易条件的政策措施。文章的具体研究思路是，首先对主要进口国的经济发展状况对中国价格贸易条件的影响作出理论阐述，分别从劳动生产率和人均国民收入两个方面探讨。实证方面，先测算出中国与主要进口国之间的双边价格贸易条件，然后搜集主要进口国的劳动生产率和人均国民收入两个自变量的数据来量化主要进口国的经济发展状况，建立面板数据模型，通过Hausman检验选择面板数据的固定效应模型，并对其进行面板回归分析，得出结果。最后本文根据理论基础和实证分析结果，对改善中国价格贸易条件提出了具有针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Terms of trade is the main measure of the proportion of international trade exchange, that is, a country exports per unit of goods can be exchanged for imports. Since Prebisch and Singer put forward Prebisch and Singer's "Prebisch" proposition in the 1950s, many economists have begun to pay attention to the study of terms of trade and found that developing countries, whether exporting primary products or manufactured goods, Their terms of trade have tended to deteriorate. As the largest developing country, China has become the focus of the research on the factors affecting the terms of trade. With the spread of the trend of free trade and globalization, China has become more and more involved in the cooperation of international division of labor, and has established close economic and trade relations with other major economies in the world, with a high degree of external dependence. Since China's export trade advantage is gradually being replaced by other developing countries, this paper intends to explore the policy measures to improve China's price terms of trade from the perspective of import trade policy. The concrete research idea of this paper is: firstly, the influence of the economic development of the major importing countries on China's price terms of trade is theoretically expounded, respectively from the two aspects of labor productivity and per capita national income. Empirically, the bilateral price terms of trade between China and the major importing countries are measured first, and then the data of the two independent variables of labor productivity and per capita national income of the major importing countries are collected to quantify the economic development of the major importing countries. The panel data model is established, and the fixed effect model of panel data is selected by Hausman test, and the results are obtained by panel regression analysis. Finally, based on the theoretical basis and empirical analysis results, this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations to improve China's price terms of trade.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F224

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