沁水县土地利用变化及其驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 09:00

【摘要】：土地利用与土地覆被变化是研究全球土地利用变化的一个重要的领域,其中,土地利用变化驱动力研究是该研究的重点之一。社会发展过程中,由于受自然因素、社会人文因素和经济因素的影响,不同地区土地利用结构及土地资源的质量在不断发生变化,并对地区环境、生态和全球环境产生影响。所以,研究分析区域土地利用变化过程、规律以及驱动因素,可为其合理开发利用土地资源以及改善生态环境提供科学依据。本文选择沁水县作为研究对象,研究影响土地利用变化的驱动力因素,旨在科学地找出影响土地利用变化的主要驱动力,为以后合理利用土地提供科学依据。本文以2002年到2011年的土地调查数据为基础,分析了沁水县的土地利用现状,以及土地利用数量与结构的变化,且主要研究了土地利用变化的幅度和土地利用变化的速度,结果表明沁水县从2002年到2011年十年间耕地、林地、居民及工矿用地、交通运输用地和水利设施用地的占用面积分别增加976、3480、780、631、1408公顷,增幅分别为0.31%、0.29%、1.72%、11.49%和50.34%。园地、牧草地和其它农用地所占面积分别减少1370、23590、1630公顷,减幅分别为4.78%、9.33%和1.96%。可见,沁水县的交通运输用地占用面积增幅最大,牧草地占用面积减幅最大,耕地、林地和其它农用地占用面积基本保持不变。在此基础上,采用定性分析和定量分析对影响土地利用变化驱动因子进行研究,定性分析主要包括自然和社会经济因素,自然因素包括气候、土壤和水文等,社会经济因素包括人口增长、第一产业、第二产业、人均收入等。在定量分析方面主要采用了层次分析法和灰色关联分析,灰色关联分析通过分别计算各类用地与各驱动因子之间的关联度,从而确定影响土地利用变化的主要因素,用层次分析法来确定影响沁水县土地利用变化的主要驱动因子。研究表明沁水县土地利用变化的主要驱动因子是全县人口、农业机械总动力、房屋竣工面积、社会消费品零售和第一产业。农用地与全县人口总数、农业机械装备水平和粮食总产量关系密切；水利设施用地与国家投资和工业的发展密切相关；未利用土地随着机械化程度的提高,通过土地整治后用于粮食生产,提高了粮食的产量,满足了越来越多的人口增加的需要。最后,运用多元线性回归建立了各类用地需求预测的模型。针对沁水县土地利用结构不合理,未利用地占得比例太大,建设用地扩张速度过快,土地供需矛盾比较明显的问题,提出了加强土地利用规划管理,优化土地利用结构,对土地的利用潜力的开发和加大对土地的科技投入等建议和措施。
[Abstract]:Land use and land cover change is an important field in the study of global land use change, among which, the study of driving force of land use change is one of the emphases of this study. In the process of social development, the structure of land use and the quality of land resources in different regions are constantly changing due to the influence of natural factors, social humanistic factors and economic factors, and have an impact on the regional environment, ecology and global environment. Therefore, the study and analysis of the process, law and driving factors of regional land use change can provide scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of land resources and the improvement of ecological environment. This paper chooses Qinshui County as the research object, studies the driving force factors which influence the land use change, in order to scientifically find out the main driving force that affects the land use change, and provides the scientific basis for the rational use of land in the future. Based on the land survey data from 2002 to 2011, this paper analyzes the present situation of land use, the changes of land use quantity and structure, and mainly studies the extent of land use change and the speed of land use change in Qinshui County. The results show that the occupied area of cultivated land, woodland, residential, industrial and mining land, transportation land and water conservancy facility land in Qinshui County from 2002 to 2011 has increased by 976 ~ 3480 / 780 / 631 / 1 / 1408 hectares respectively, with an increase of 0.31 / 0 / 0.29 and 1.72 / 2 / 11.49% and 50.34% respectively. The area of garden, forage land and other agricultural land decreased by 1370 ~ 23590 ~ 1630 hectares, respectively, by 4.78 ~ 9.33% and 1.96% respectively. It can be seen that Qinshui County has the largest increase in the area occupied by traffic and transportation land, the largest decrease in the area occupied by pasture land, and the area occupied by cultivated land, woodland and other agricultural land remains basically unchanged. On this basis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are used to study the driving factors affecting land use change. The qualitative analysis mainly includes natural and socio-economic factors, natural factors including climate, soil and hydrology, etc. Social and economic factors include population growth, primary industry, secondary industry, per capita income and so on. In the aspect of quantitative analysis, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the grey correlation analysis (GRA) are mainly used to determine the main factors that affect the land use change by calculating the correlation degree between each land use and the driving factors, respectively. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the main driving factors affecting land use change in Qinshui County. The study shows that the main driving factors of land use change in Qinshui County are the population, the total power of agricultural machinery, the completed area of houses, the retail of consumer goods and the primary industry. The agricultural land is closely related to the total population of the county, the level of agricultural machinery and equipment and the total grain output; the land for water conservancy facilities is closely related to the development of state investment and industry; and the unused land is increasing with the degree of mechanization. After land regulation, grain production is increased and more population is met. Finally, the multivariate linear regression model of land demand prediction is established. In view of the unreasonable structure of land use, the proportion of unused land, the rapid expansion of construction land and the obvious contradiction between supply and demand of land, the paper puts forward to strengthen the management of land use planning and optimize the structure of land use. Suggestions and measures to develop the potential of land use and increase the scientific and technological input to land.
【学位授予单位】：山西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301.2;F224

【参考文献】