货币政策、融资约束和房地产企业投资行为
发布时间：2018-07-14 21:55
【摘要】：1929年—1933年的世界性经济危机使人们对“看不见的手”产生了质疑,西方古典经济学派信奉的“货币中性”理论开始受到挑战。经过各经济学派长期的理论争辩,加之众多实证研究结果的支持,“货币是否中性”之争得以平息。国内外学者们一致认为：货币政策短期有效,长期中性。近年来我国一直将房地产行业作为货币政策调控的重点对象,但是房价的不断攀升使得货币政策对于房地产行业调控的有效性受到质疑。 本文从房地产企业投资水平的角度出发,引入货币政策,研究货币政策对我国房地产行业的有效性。本文选取2003年第一季度到2013年第三季度A股房地产上市公司的数据,研究发现,我国房地产行业存在显著的投资—现金流敏感性,融资约束程度高的房地产企业具有更高的投资—现金流敏感性；货币政策对我国房地产企业的投资水平具有显著影响,货币政策越宽松,投资水平越高；货币政策通过影响企业的融资约束程度进而影响其投资水平,宽松的货币政策会降低企业投资—现金流敏感性,缓解融资约束程度,紧缩的货币政策作用反之。研究结果同时表明,货币政策的作用时滞为三个季度。 本文是对货币政策微观效果及其传导机制的研究,为货币政策微观传导机制提供了相关的实证支持。同时,本文的实证结果可以为我国货币政策的制定、资本市场投资者的决策提供一定的参考。另外,本文创新性地引入社会融资总额作为货币政策宽松程度的衡量指标,为今后货币政策相关的实证研究提供了一个新的角度。
[Abstract]:The world economic crisis from 1929 to 1933 made people question the "invisible hand", and the "monetary neutrality" theory believed in by the western classical economic school began to be challenged. After a long period of theoretical debate among various economic schools and the support of many empirical studies, the debate on whether money is neutral can be quelled. Domestic and foreign scholars agree that monetary policy is effective in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. In recent years, the real estate industry has been the focus of monetary policy control in China, but the rising housing prices make the effectiveness of monetary policy for the real estate industry to be questioned. From the point of view of investment level of real estate enterprises, this paper introduces monetary policy to study the effectiveness of monetary policy on real estate industry in China. From the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2013, this paper selects the data of A-share real estate listed companies, and finds that there is significant investment-cash flow sensitivity in China's real estate industry. The real estate enterprises with high degree of financing constraint have higher sensitivity of investment-cash flow, monetary policy has significant influence on the investment level of Chinese real estate enterprises, the looser the monetary policy, the higher the investment level. Monetary policy can reduce the sensitivity of investment-cash flow and ease the degree of financing constraint by influencing the degree of financing constraint and then the level of investment. The results also show that the time lag of monetary policy is three quarters. This paper studies the microcosmic effect of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, which provides relevant empirical support for monetary policy micro-transmission mechanism. At the same time, the empirical results of this paper can provide a certain reference for the formulation of monetary policy and the decision of capital market investors. In addition, this paper innovatively introduces the total amount of social financing as a measure of monetary policy easing, which provides a new perspective for the empirical research on monetary policy in the future.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23
本文编号：2123078
[Abstract]:The world economic crisis from 1929 to 1933 made people question the "invisible hand", and the "monetary neutrality" theory believed in by the western classical economic school began to be challenged. After a long period of theoretical debate among various economic schools and the support of many empirical studies, the debate on whether money is neutral can be quelled. Domestic and foreign scholars agree that monetary policy is effective in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. In recent years, the real estate industry has been the focus of monetary policy control in China, but the rising housing prices make the effectiveness of monetary policy for the real estate industry to be questioned. From the point of view of investment level of real estate enterprises, this paper introduces monetary policy to study the effectiveness of monetary policy on real estate industry in China. From the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2013, this paper selects the data of A-share real estate listed companies, and finds that there is significant investment-cash flow sensitivity in China's real estate industry. The real estate enterprises with high degree of financing constraint have higher sensitivity of investment-cash flow, monetary policy has significant influence on the investment level of Chinese real estate enterprises, the looser the monetary policy, the higher the investment level. Monetary policy can reduce the sensitivity of investment-cash flow and ease the degree of financing constraint by influencing the degree of financing constraint and then the level of investment. The results also show that the time lag of monetary policy is three quarters. This paper studies the microcosmic effect of monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, which provides relevant empirical support for monetary policy micro-transmission mechanism. At the same time, the empirical results of this paper can provide a certain reference for the formulation of monetary policy and the decision of capital market investors. In addition, this paper innovatively introduces the total amount of social financing as a measure of monetary policy easing, which provides a new perspective for the empirical research on monetary policy in the future.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 冯科;;货币政策无效的实证分析——基于2003～2008年的数据[J];北京工商大学学报(社会科学版);2010年03期
2 连玉君;程建;;投资—现金流敏感性:融资约束还是代理成本?[J];财经研究;2007年02期
3 唐建新;章晋学;;融资优序与行业管制——兼析中国上市公司“异常融资优序”现象[J];财会通讯(学术版);2005年12期
4 汪强;林晨;吴世农;;融资约束、公司治理与投资—现金流敏感性——基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J];当代财经;2008年12期
5 肖文伟;杨小娟;;货币政策时滞问题实证分析[J];系统工程;2010年07期
6 刘金全;货币政策作用的有效性和非对称性研究[J];管理世界;2002年03期
7 陈建斌;;政策方向、经济周期与货币政策效力非对称性[J];管理世界;2006年09期
8 彭方平;王少平;;我国利率政策的微观效应——基于动态面板数据模型研究[J];管理世界;2007年01期
9 祝继高;陆正飞;;货币政策、企业成长与现金持有水平变化[J];管理世界;2009年03期
10 袁国良,郑江淮,胡志乾;我国上市公司融资偏好和融资能力的实证研究[J];管理世界;1999年03期
，本文编号：2123078
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/jingjiguanlilunwen/2123078.html
