两岸金融合作的VAR分析

发布时间：2018-07-20 21:28

【摘要】：两岸金融是两岸经济的重要组成部分,两岸金融合作能有效促进两岸经济的发展。随着《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》(ECFA)、《海峡两岸金融监管合作谅解备忘录》(MOU)等基础性框架协议的签订,两岸金融合作迎来了空前的发展机遇。但是,一些制度、结构上的问题逐渐暴露出来,两岸金融机构单向不对称、金融合作信息不对称、金融制度开放不对称等问题严重制约着两岸金融合作的发展。本文利用主成分分析提取出一个变量来代表两岸金融合作,并利用2012年1月-2013年12月代表两岸金融、贸易、投资的月度数据进行VAR分析,结果显示：(1)根据Johansen检验的结果,两岸金融与两岸贸易、投资之间存在长期稳定的相互影响和作用关系；(2)根据脉冲响应分析的结果,两岸金融、贸易、投资的发展对两岸金融合作的发展存在微弱的短期影响；(3)根据方差分解的结果,两岸金融合作的发展主要取决于两岸金融自身的发展,两岸贸易、投资对其影响微乎其微；(4)根据Granger检验的结果,两岸金融合作的发展与两岸贸易、投资之间尚不足以产生统计上的因果关系。这一结论符合理论假设和预期,同时也反映了两岸金融合作的客观现状：目前,两岸金融合作的发展程度还很低,两岸金融与两岸贸易、投资之间本应存在的相互影响渠道还没有完全建立,处于较低发展阶段的两岸金融合作尚不足以和两岸贸易、投资产生有效的交互影响,这种现状无疑弱化了两岸金融合作对两岸经济的促进作用。这意味着两岸金融合作应该发挥的作用还没有完全发挥出来,也意味着未来两岸金融合作的发展还具有很大的潜力。因此,两岸应该在ECFA、 MOU等基础性协议的框架内不断深化两岸金融合作,从金融业务、金融监管、货币政策等方面着手推动两岸金融合作的进一步发展。
[Abstract]:Cross-strait finance is an important part of cross-strait economy, and cross-strait financial cooperation can effectively promote the development of cross-strait economy. With the signing of basic framework agreements such as the Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait (ECFA) and the Memorandum of understanding on Financial Supervision Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait (MOU), cross-strait financial cooperation has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. However, some institutional and structural problems are gradually exposed, such as one-way asymmetry of cross-strait financial institutions, asymmetric information of financial cooperation, asymmetric opening of financial system, and so on, which seriously restrict the development of cross-strait financial cooperation. This paper uses principal component analysis to extract a variable to represent cross-strait financial cooperation, and carries out VAR analysis using monthly data representing cross-strait finance, trade and investment from January 2012 to December 2013. The results show that: (1) according to the results of Johansen test, The relationship between cross-strait finance and cross-strait trade and investment has a long-term and stable interaction. (2) according to the results of impulse response analysis, the development of cross-strait finance, trade and investment has a weak short-term impact on the development of cross-strait financial cooperation. (3) according to the result of variance decomposition, the development of cross-strait financial cooperation mainly depends on the development of cross-strait finance itself, and cross-strait trade and investment have little influence on it; (4) according to the results of Granger test, the development of cross-strait financial cooperation and cross-strait trade, Investment is not yet sufficient to produce a statistical causal relationship. This conclusion accords with theoretical assumptions and expectations, and also reflects the objective situation of cross-strait financial cooperation: at present, the level of development of cross-strait financial cooperation is still very low, and cross-strait finance and cross-strait trade, The channels of interaction that should have existed between investments have not yet been fully established, and cross-strait financial cooperation, which is at a relatively low stage of development, is not enough to interact with cross-strait trade, and investment has an effective interactive impact. This situation undoubtedly weakens the promotion function of cross-straits financial cooperation to cross-straits economy. This means that the role that cross-strait financial cooperation should play has not been fully brought into play, and it also means that the development of cross-strait financial cooperation still has great potential in the future. Therefore, the two sides should deepen cross-strait financial cooperation within the framework of ECFA, MOU and other basic agreements, and start to promote the further development of cross-strait financial cooperation in the aspects of financial business, financial supervision and monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.7;F224

【引证文献】