基于性能退化的长寿命产品可靠性建模与分析

发布时间：2018-07-25 09:56

【摘要】：随着科技水平的飞跃式发展、制造工业精密化、新型复合材料的层出不穷,长寿命产品在航空航天、电子工业、信息工业等各大工业领域应用越来越广泛,然而,如何对其可靠性进行建模分析也成为了亟待解决的问题。近年来,性能退化方法被众多学者和工程人员用来解决小子样、长寿命产品的可靠性建模与分析问题,使得基于性能退化的可靠性建模分析方法成为了可靠性工程领域的热点。为了得到更加可信的分析结果,需要针对不同的数据信息建立合适的退化模型来描述退化过程,再结合数学方法以及仿真方法对退化模型进行参数估计以及模型验证。本文对于长寿命产品的退化建模与分析问题进行了探索性的研究。主要的研究内容与成果如下:(1)基于随机过程的可靠性建模与分析。首先介绍了基于Wiener-Einstein过程、Gamma过程可靠性建模与分析的基本内容,分析了两类随机过程进行退化建模的适用条件,接着根据可靠性模型完成了模型的参数估计,并对可靠度的置信下限给出了通用Bootstap仿真方法,最后结合卫星动量轮数据实例验证了方法的适用性与准确性。(2)基于带拐点数据的多阶段随机过程的可靠性建模与分析。首先介绍了长寿命产品带拐点数据的由来,引出了多阶段可靠性问题,接着完成了多阶段退化建模,给出了失效分布的封闭表达式与参数估计结果,并给出了可靠度置信下限的通用Bootstrap仿真方法步骤,最后结合卫星蓄电池数据实例验证了模型的适用性与准确性。(3)基于函数拟合竞争失效关系的可靠性建模与分析。首先介绍了长寿命产品竞争失效问题的由来,分析了突发失效以及退化失效之间建模联系,接着提出了函数拟合方法拟合突发失效与退化失效的竞争关系,建立了竞争失效模型,完成了模型参数评估,最后用Ga As激光器数据实例的计算结果与退化失效建模结果进行了对比,验证了模型的适用性与准确性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the level of science and technology, the precision of manufacturing industry, the new type of composite materials emerge in endlessly. The long life products have become more and more widely used in various major industrial fields, such as aerospace, electronic industry and information industry. However, how to model and analyze its reliability has become an urgent problem. In recent years, the performance degradation side The method has been used by many scholars and engineers to solve the problem of reliability modeling and analysis of small sample and long life products. The reliability modeling analysis method based on performance degradation has become a hot topic in the field of reliability engineering. In order to get more credible analysis results, it is necessary to establish a suitable degenerate model for different data information. To describe the degradation process, and then combine mathematical methods and simulation methods to estimate the parameters of the degenerate model and verify the model. This paper makes an exploratory research on the degradation modeling and analysis of long life products. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the reliability modeling and analysis based on the following machine process are introduced. Based on the basic contents of the reliability modeling and analysis of the Wiener-Einstein process and the Gamma process, the applicable conditions for the degradation modeling of the two types of random processes are analyzed. Then the parameter estimation of the model is completed according to the reliability model, and a general Bootstap simulation method is given for the confidence lower limit of the reliability. Finally, the data of the satellite momentum wheel data are combined. The applicability and accuracy of the method are verified. (2) based on the reliability modeling and analysis of multistage random process with inflection point data, the origin of the long life product with inflection point data is introduced, and the multistage reliability problem is introduced. Then the multi-stage degradation modeling is completed, and the closed expression and parameter estimation of the failure distribution are given. As a result, the general Bootstrap simulation method of confidence lower limit of reliability is given. Finally, the applicability and accuracy of the model are verified with the data examples of satellite battery. (3) reliability modeling and analysis based on the function fitting competition failure relationship. First, the origin of the competition failure of long life products is introduced, and the burst is analyzed. The relationship between failure and degradation failure is established. Then, the function fitting method is put forward to fit the competition relationship between the burst failure and the degenerate failure. The competition failure model is established and the model parameters are evaluated. Finally, the results of the Ga As laser data example are compared with the results of the degradation failure modeling, and the application of the model is verified. Sex and accuracy.
【学位授予单位】：国防科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F273.2

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