基于客户需求的纺机行业订单预测研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 15:25

【摘要】：随着市场和科学技术的快速发展，消费者需求呈现出多样化和细分化的趋势，制造企业逐步转化为多品种小批量的生产方式。纺机企业面临着在满足客户多样化需求的前提下，降低生产成本，减少浪费，提高纺机产品质量的巨大挑战，订单作为客户需求的体现和企业的生命，研究在复杂多变的市场环境下对做出准确的订单预测可以有效的解决上述问题。随着信息化技术的发展，纺织机械制造企业通过采用信息管理系统，在数据库中存储了大量的销售订单历史数据，本文依据企业的销售数据，分析客户需求的变化特征和影响因素，以此作为历史订单数据的研究切点，从而建立订单预测模型。本文主要工作如下：（1）介绍了制造行业的背景和产品特点，在此基础上详细介绍了订单预测的相关知识和研究现状，，指出了常见订单预测方法的不足，提出了面向客户需求建立纺机企业的订单预测模型。（2）阐述了客户需求与订单的辩证关系，在纺机行业的历史销售数据规范完整的基础上，分析了客户需求对于订单预测的重要意义，提出了从传统时间序列预测方法转为针对客户需求的订单预测方法。（3）依据实时销售数据，并结合纺机市场分析客户需求的变动特征，提出相关的客户需求模糊影响因子，构建一种新的基于客户需求模糊影响因子的时间序列分解订单预测方法，并对本文所采用的模型建立方法和预测原理进行了相关的阐述。与此同时提出结合实际终端客户订单情况进行对比分析，在对比分析的基础上，对订单预测方法作出评价。（4）结合具体纺机企业，对订单预测模型进行软件开发与验证。对纺机企业的订单管理与预测系统进行了需求和目标分析，研究系统的框架和开发环境，并依据模型原理进行功能结构设计，最后在案例中对纺机企业的订单管理与预测系统进行实例应用，为后续生产活动的开展提供有效可靠的订单信息。最后对全文的研究内容进行总结，分析其存在的不足，并对课题的后续研究进行展望。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of market and science and technology, the consumer demand shows a trend of diversification and differentiation. Spinning machine enterprises are faced with the huge challenge of reducing production cost, reducing waste and improving the quality of spinning machine products under the premise of meeting the diversified needs of customers. Order is the embodiment of customer demand and the life of enterprises. The research can solve the above problems effectively by making accurate order forecasting in the complex and changeable market environment. With the development of information technology, textile machinery manufacturing enterprises store a large number of historical data of sales orders in the database by adopting information management system. The changing characteristics and influencing factors of customer demand are analyzed, which is used as the research point of historical order data, and then the order prediction model is established. The main work of this paper is as follows: (1) the background and product characteristics of manufacturing industry are introduced. On this basis, the related knowledge and research status of order forecasting are introduced in detail, and the shortcomings of common order forecasting methods are pointed out. In this paper, the order forecasting model of spinning machine enterprises is proposed to meet customer demand. (2) the dialectical relationship between customer demand and order is expounded. On the basis of the standardization and integrity of historical sales data of spinning machine industry, This paper analyzes the importance of customer demand to order forecasting, and puts forward an order forecasting method from traditional time series forecasting method to customer demand forecasting method. (3) according to the real time sales data, Based on the analysis of changing characteristics of customer demand in spinning machine market, a new forecasting method of time series decomposing order based on fuzzy influence factor of customer demand is proposed. The modeling method and prediction principle used in this paper are also expounded. At the same time, the paper puts forward a comparative analysis of the actual end-customer order, and evaluates the forecasting method of the order on the basis of the comparative analysis. (4) combined with the specific spinning machine enterprise, The order prediction model is developed and validated. The requirements and objectives of the order management and prediction system of spinning machine enterprises are analyzed, the framework and development environment of the system are studied, and the functional structure is designed according to the principle of the model. Finally, an example is given to the order management and prediction system of spinning machine enterprises, which provides effective and reliable order information for the subsequent production activities. Finally, the paper summarizes the research content, analyzes its shortcomings, and looks forward to the future research.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F426.81

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