基于Logistic模型的食物供给情况模拟分析

发布时间：2018-09-05 05:41

【摘要】：本文从全国、分省、分县不同尺度对我国食物实际产量进行整理、修正。通过不同产源对食物进行分类,根据热量、蛋白质、脂肪不同含量将不同食物分农、林、牧、渔生态系统进行汇总分析。进而结合不同阶段将我国食物消费分温饱、小康、富裕进行营养分配,对我国食物供给情况做全面分析。在对食物供给分析过程中,发现我国食物供给情况符合Logistic曲线增长趋势。又根据我国土壤分布、气候变化、太阳辐射等自然信息,对我国最大食物供给情况进行模拟求解,获得我国未来食物最大供给量。结合我国30多年食物统计数据与我国未来食物最大供给情况,使用Logistic模型对我国未来年份食物供给情况进行模拟。本文收集了我国农业生态系统的主要食物供应源,包含农、林、牧、渔生态系统40余项主产食物进行统计分析。分析内容包含总产、单产、比重、趋势等方面,通过分析了解到我国食物单产、总产均保持良好的增长趋势,根据中央18亿亩耕地红线的控制,我国未来食物产量也必将得以保持。通过对统计数据分省区、县域的空间分析,在空间分布上对我国食物供给情况分析。分析结果显示我国食物供给情况分布基本符合我国人口分布特点,但是部分地区食物产量不能保障人口所需存在明显的区域食物短缺情况。食物供给模拟研究的主要方法总结起来包含经验模型和机理模型。本文通过对经验模型的进一步补充,结合我国过去六十年土壤类型、土壤水分、降水、气温信息对我国农业生态系统最大食物供给量进行模拟求解,模拟出我国农业生态系统的最大食物供给能力。通过与我国食物统计数据的比较,在空间分布上基本符合我国食物分布的情况。从模拟结果来看,我国生态系统最大供给能力比我国现在食物产出要高出很多,说明我国资源利用还有很大的提升空间。在对区域进行比较过程中,发现部分区域的生态利用程度已经超出最大生态所能供给的范围,在这些区域应该注意生态的保护工作和区域生态补偿。在对我国食物供给的统计分析过程中,分析结果显示我国食物产出趋势符合Logistic曲线的趋势。结合先验经验,食物的产出也必然存在峰值的限制。在此基础分析之上,本文选择使用Logistic模型对我国食物供给情况进行模拟。选择使用经验模型模拟的我国农业生态系统最大食物供给作为我国食物供给的最大值限制,统计数据作为梯度增长数据,年份作为时间梯度对我国未来年份食物供给进行模拟。首先,使用以上数据对Logistic模型中的未知参数进行求解,再用统计数据进行验证,在满足误差范围之内时最终确定模型形式,最后使用确定模型对我国未来年份食物供给情况进行模拟。本文模拟了我国未来10年、20年、30年的食物供给情况,分析结果显示我国2020年食物可供给人口数量为18.2亿,2030年食物可供给人口数量为20.3亿,2040年食物可供给人口数量为21.4亿。通过对模拟结果的分析,发现在未来时间里我国食物供应在较长时间内会保持持续增加的趋势,并不会因为我国在人口达到峰值之前因为食物短缺而造成对世界食物依赖的情况。通过对我国往年统计数据的分析,对我国最大食物供应能力的模拟结果和对未来年份食物供给情况的模拟分析,在时间梯度上纵观的对我国食物供给情况进行了解。结果显示,我国不会出现食物恐慌的局面,而且在我国人口达到峰值后,我国的食物输出还会为世界食物提供食物输出。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the actual food production in China is sorted out and revised at different scales of the whole country, provinces and counties. Food is classified according to different sources of production, and different food is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ecosystems according to different contents of heat, protein and fat. In the process of food supply analysis, it is found that China's food supply conforms to the increasing trend of the Logistic curve. According to the natural information of soil distribution, climate change and solar radiation, the maximum food supply in China is simulated and solved, and the results are not available in China. According to the food statistics of more than 30 years in China and the maximum food supply in the future in China, the food supply in the coming years in China is simulated by using Logistic model.
In this paper, the main food supply sources of agro-ecosystem in China were collected, including more than 40 main food products of agro-ecosystem, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ecosystem. The contents of the analysis included total yield, unit yield, specific gravity, trend and so on. Through the analysis, it was found that the food yield in China maintained a good growth trend, according to the 1.8 billion mu cultivated land red. The results show that the distribution of food supply in China basically conforms to the characteristics of population distribution, but food production in some areas can not guarantee the population. There is a visible regional food shortage.
The main methods of food supply simulation research are summarized as empirical model and mechanism model.Based on the further supplement of empirical model and combined with the information of soil type, soil moisture, precipitation and temperature in the past 60 years in China, the maximum food supply of agricultural ecosystem in China is simulated and solved, and the agricultural ecology in China is simulated. Comparing with the statistical data of food in China, the spatial distribution of the system is basically in line with the food distribution in China. From the simulation results, the maximum supply capacity of the ecosystem in China is much higher than that of the food output in China, indicating that there is still much room for improvement in the utilization of resources in China. In the process of comparing the regions, it is found that the degree of ecological utilization in some areas has exceeded the scope of the maximum ecological supply, and ecological protection and regional ecological compensation should be paid attention to in these areas.
In the process of statistical analysis of food supply in China, the results show that the trend of food output conforms to the trend of Logistic curve. Combining with prior experience, the output of food is bound to be limited by the peak value. The maximum food supply in China's agricultural ecosystem simulated by the model is regarded as the maximum limit of food supply in China. Statistical data are used as gradient growth data and years as time gradient to simulate food supply in China's future years. The food supply in the next 10 years, 20 years and 30 years in China is simulated. The results show that the food supply in 2020 is 1.82 billion and the food supply in 2030 is acceptable. According to the analysis of the simulation results, it is found that China's food supply will continue to increase for a long time in the future, and will not depend on the world food because of the shortage of food before the population reaches its peak. Condition.
Based on the analysis of the statistical data of past years in China, the simulation results of the maximum food supply capacity in China and the simulation analysis of the food supply situation in the coming years are given. The results show that there will be no food panic in China, and after the peak of population in China China's food export will also provide food output for world food.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F326

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