人民币汇率变动对我国制造业就业的影响
发布时间：2018-09-11 09:45
【摘要】：作为两国货币的兑换价格,汇率是衡量两国货币购买力和产品价格竞争力的一个非常重要的指标。在开放经济中,当汇率发生变动时,首先会影响到国内外商品相对价格,然后影响两国贸易商品的进出口需求,促使出口型企业调整生产规模,从而导致企业对劳动力的需求发生变化,最终影响到国内整个实体经济的运行。结合我国的实际情况,汇率升值压力和失业问题是同时存在的,而制造业又是我国吸纳劳动力较多的行业,因此深入探讨人民币汇率变动对制造业就业的影响具有极大的理论意义和现实意义。 通过深入研究总结国内外研究成果,本文对汇率变动影响就业的理论和机制进行了系统的阐述。基于对现有国内外文献的深入研究和分析发现有关人民币汇率就业效应的研究主要集中在宏观领域,或者将制造业作为一个整体,很少有对制造业细分行业的定量研究。因此,为了更好的分析人民币汇率对我国制造业就业的影响,本文首先运用时序数据分析了汇率对制造业就业总量的影响,其次,本文将所选取的24个细分行业按照要素密集度划分为劳动密集型制造业,资本密集型制造业和技术密集型制造业,并运用面板数据模型进行实证分析,定量的分析了人民币汇率波动对制造业中细分行业就业的影响。实证结果表明：人民币升值会减少制造业就业的总量,但是对不同行业的具体影响程度是不同的。人民币升值会显著的减少劳动密集型制造业行业的就业,且其影响程度大于制造业总体。人民币汇率与多数资本密集型制造业和技术密集型制造业的就业呈正相关关系,但是在统计上并不显著。本文最后根据实证结果的分析,提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As the exchange price of the two currencies, the exchange rate is a very important index to measure the purchasing power of the two countries'currencies and the competitiveness of their products' prices. According to the actual situation of our country, the pressure of exchange rate appreciation and unemployment exist at the same time, while the manufacturing industry absorbs more labor force in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to probe into the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the manufacturing industry. The influence of industry is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Through in-depth study and summary of domestic and foreign research results, this paper systematically expounds the theory and mechanism of exchange rate fluctuation affecting employment. Therefore, in order to better analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's manufacturing employment, this paper firstly analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the total employment of manufacturing industry using time series data. Secondly, this paper divides the 24 selected industries into labor-intensive manufacturing industries according to factor-intensive. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB will reduce the total employment of manufacturing industry, but the specific impact on different industries is different. The RMB exchange rate is positively correlated with the employment of most capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industries, but it is not statistically significant. Finally, according to the analysis of the empirical results, this paper proposes that Related policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.21
本文编号：2236340
[Abstract]:As the exchange price of the two currencies, the exchange rate is a very important index to measure the purchasing power of the two countries'currencies and the competitiveness of their products' prices. According to the actual situation of our country, the pressure of exchange rate appreciation and unemployment exist at the same time, while the manufacturing industry absorbs more labor force in our country. Therefore, it is necessary to probe into the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the manufacturing industry. The influence of industry is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Through in-depth study and summary of domestic and foreign research results, this paper systematically expounds the theory and mechanism of exchange rate fluctuation affecting employment. Therefore, in order to better analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's manufacturing employment, this paper firstly analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the total employment of manufacturing industry using time series data. Secondly, this paper divides the 24 selected industries into labor-intensive manufacturing industries according to factor-intensive. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB will reduce the total employment of manufacturing industry, but the specific impact on different industries is different. The RMB exchange rate is positively correlated with the employment of most capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industries, but it is not statistically significant. Finally, according to the analysis of the empirical results, this paper proposes that Related policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.21
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