应急物流动态协同决策过程体系研究

发布时间：2018-09-12 08:34

【摘要】：一系列突发公共事件例如：2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害、青海玉树地震、“5.12”汶川地震、舟曲泥石流灾害等诸如此类突发事件的发生和应急处理，使应急物流成为近年来国内学术界的研究热点之一。突发性公共事件呈现出频发性、突发性和链状性特征，影响愈发严重。应对突发公共事件是一项复杂的系统工程。然而，在突发公共事件发生后，救援情景随着时空的变化而动态变化，应急物流在动态情景的前提下，救援的成败便主要体现在应急物流在短时间内获取应急物资的快慢和运输水平的高低上面。然而，在突发事件发生后，制定科学的应急决策是应急管理响应的第一步，是应对突发事件的基础，是对日后救援工作的引导和风向标，是评价应急工作成功与否的关键。因此，对突发公共事件的研究，急需从决策的方面入手，需在充分考虑救援情景的动态性的前提下，结合协同优化的理论，对应急物流的决策理论进行系统化的研究和改进。本论文的研究采用了定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法。开篇首先汇总了国内外研究突发公共事件的相关文献，分析了它们所研究的内容和成果。在有关应急物流的动态协同决策方面，从已有的文献所得出的结论中可以看出，在此研究领域的一些资深学者已经明确表明，对其研究是有很大的理论价值和实践意义的。但大部分学者对其的研究还未深入到动态性，仍然仅仅对其静态性进行了大量研究。进而可以看出，，在现阶段，对应急物流决策的动态研究缺乏系统的理论与深入的研究。在这种背景下提出了本文研究内容的必要性。其次，论文阐述了本论文中所运用到的理论基础，即：应急物流相关理论、协同论、“情景-分析”法、动态规划等。为后面构造应急物流虚拟协同体及构建应急物资分配的动态协同决策调拨规划模型，进行了理论铺垫。再次，分析了应急物流协同的四大因素即：国务院与各地政府间协同、信息协同、运输协同、物资协同。在此基础上建立了应急物流虚拟协同体及应急物流虚拟协同体信息平台，并对所构建的应急物流虚拟协同体系统的可靠性进行了分析。最后，研究分析了随着救灾时间和空间的变化，救援物资种类和数量、救灾的路网环境也在相应动态变化的过程。并在构建应急物流虚拟协同体的基础上，协同交通、信息等因素，围绕突发事件情景演化规律，做出一个更加符合实际情况的应急物资分配的动态协同决策调拨规划模型，以提高应急救援的效率。并在实例分析中得以良好的应用。
[Abstract]:A series of unexpected public events such as the 2008 Southern Rainy and Snow Frozen disaster, the Qinghai Yushu earthquake, the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake, the Zhouqu debris flow disaster, and so on, Emergency logistics has become one of the research hotspots in domestic academic circles in recent years. Sudden public events show frequent, sudden and chain characteristics, and the impact is becoming more and more serious. Dealing with public emergencies is a complex system engineering. However, after the public emergency happened, the rescue situation changed dynamically with the change of time and space, and the emergency logistics changed under the premise of the dynamic situation. The success or failure of rescue is mainly reflected in the speed of obtaining emergency supplies and the level of transportation in a short period of time. However, making scientific emergency decision is the first step of emergency management response, the basis of emergency response, the guide and wind vane of rescue work in the future, and the key to evaluate the success of emergency work. Therefore, it is urgent to study the emergency public events from the aspect of decision making. On the premise of fully considering the dynamic nature of rescue situations and combining the theory of collaborative optimization, the decision-making theory of emergency logistics should be systematically studied and improved. This paper adopts the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. At the beginning of the chapter, we summarize the literature about public emergencies at home and abroad, and analyze their contents and achievements. In the aspect of dynamic collaborative decision making of emergency logistics, it can be seen from the conclusions drawn from the existing literature that some senior scholars in this field have clearly indicated that the study of emergency logistics has great theoretical value and practical significance. However, most scholars have not deeply studied its dynamic nature, and still do a lot of research on its static nature. Furthermore, it can be seen that, at present, the dynamic research on emergency logistics decision is lack of systematic theory and in-depth research. Under this background, the necessity of this paper is put forward. Secondly, the paper describes the theoretical basis of this paper, namely: emergency logistics related theory, synergy theory, "situational analysis" method, dynamic programming and so on. This paper provides a theoretical basis for constructing the virtual synergy of emergency logistics and the dynamic collaborative decision allocation planning model for the allocation of emergency materials. Thirdly, four factors of emergency logistics coordination are analyzed: coordination between the State Council and local governments, information coordination, transportation coordination, and material coordination. On this basis, the information platform of emergency logistics virtual synergy and emergency logistics virtual synergy is established, and the reliability of the emergency logistics virtual synergy system is analyzed. Finally, with the change of disaster relief time and space, the type and quantity of relief materials, the road network environment of disaster relief is also changing dynamically. On the basis of constructing virtual synergetic body of emergency logistics, cooperating with traffic, information and other factors, a dynamic coordinated decision-making and allocation planning model of emergency material allocation is made around the evolution law of emergency situation, which is more in line with the actual situation. To improve the efficiency of emergency rescue. And it can be applied well in the analysis of examples.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.2

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