PPP模式下准经营性基础设施项目的风险分担研究

发布时间：2018-09-12 09:04

【摘要】：目前我国城市化的快速发展，基础设施建设步伐急需加快。政府部门在部分基础设施建设中采用PPP(Public Private Partnerships)模式引入社会资本，可以减轻政府资金压力，加快基础设施建设步伐以满足社会主义现代化的发展需求。基础设施中有一类项目是准许经营，有少量收入，但收入又小于投资，要经过很长的投资回收期才能慢慢回收投资的项目，我们称这样的项目为“准经营性项目”，政府若采取PPP模式来建设此项目，那么这就是本文研究的对象：“PPP模式下准经营性基础设施项目”。这类项目具有投资成本高、投资回收期长、回报小、参与方复杂等特点，加上在利益角度上，政府重视公益性而私营企业重视经济效益，此类项目的风险往往要比一般的建设项目更多、更大、更难掌控，并且实现风险合理分担难度更大。导致常常出现两种情况：第一种是项目风险分担的谈判普遍耗费的时间很长，使谈判成本很高；第二种是勉强谈判完，之后却不能履行谈判签订的合同条款。这些都给项目的成功造成很大的障碍。风险合理分担是项目成功的保障，目前迫切需要行之有效并且具体的风险分担方法。论文从14篇权威文献中梳理了PPP模式下准经营性基础设施项目的常见风险共40个。然后用专家打分法对这些风险的发生概率、损害程度和综合影响程度分别进行了排序，再用ABC分类法识别出了30个关键风险因素、5个重要风险因素、5个次要风险因素。为实践中各参与方分析众多风险因素的分担问题时提供了大概的主次参考。之后运用三方完全信息静态博弈分析得出：审批获得/延误、法律和监管体系不完善等7个可以由公共部门单独承担的风险，和融资风险、建造成本超支等5个由私营机构单独承担的风险，和收益不足、市场需求变化等18个需要共同分担的风险。再运用层次分析法对需要共同分担的风险做了具体分担比例的定量分析。最后论文以其中的“通货膨胀风险”为例子进行实例分析运用。整个分担过程建立在四条分担原则上，分别是：风险由最有控制力的一方承担，承担的风险要有上限，，承担的风险程度与所得回报相匹配，有承担风险的意愿。从分担原则出发，构建了风险分担一级指标和二级指标，建立了风险分担评价指标体系。论文采用了完全信息静态博弈定性分析与层次分析法定量分析相结合的方式，把分担满意度与分担指标客观性结合起来，得出合理的分担结果。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid development of urbanization in China, the pace of infrastructure construction needs to be accelerated. The introduction of social capital by the PPP (Public Private Partnerships) model in some infrastructure construction of government departments can reduce the pressure on government funds and speed up the pace of infrastructure construction to meet the development needs of socialist modernization. There are projects in the infrastructure that are permitted to operate and have a small amount of income, but the income is less than the investment, and it takes a very long payback period to slowly recover the investment. We call these projects "quasi-operational projects." If the government adopts the PPP model to build this project, then this is the object of this paper: "the quasi-operational infrastructure project under the PPP mode". Such projects are characterized by high investment costs, long payback periods, small returns and complex participants. In addition, in terms of interests, the government attaches importance to public welfare while private enterprises attach importance to economic benefits. The risks of such projects tend to be more, larger, more difficult to manage than normal construction projects, and it is more difficult to achieve reasonable risk sharing. As a result, there are often two situations: the first is that the negotiation of project risk sharing generally takes a long time, which makes the negotiation very expensive, and the second is that the negotiation is reluctantly completed, but then cannot fulfill the terms of the contract signed by the negotiation. These all pose great obstacles to the success of the project. Reasonable risk sharing is the guarantee of project success, and effective and specific risk sharing methods are urgently needed. This paper combs the common risks of quasi-operational infrastructure projects under PPP model from 14 authoritative documents. Then, the occurrence probability, damage degree and comprehensive influence degree of these risks are sorted by expert scoring method, and then 30 key risk factors, 5 important risk factors and 5 secondary risk factors are identified by ABC classification. It provides a general primary and secondary reference for the participants to analyze the problem of the sharing of many risk factors in practice. Then, by using the static game analysis of three parties' complete information, this paper draws a conclusion that the seven risks that can be undertaken by the public sector alone, such as approval / delay, imperfect legal and regulatory system, and financing risks, Five private sector risks, such as construction cost overruns, and 18 risks that need to be shared, such as inadequate returns and changing market demand. Then the paper makes a quantitative analysis of the proportion of the risk that needs to be shared by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, the paper takes inflation risk as an example to analyze and apply it. The whole process of sharing is based on the four principles of sharing: the risk is assumed by the most controlling party, the risk must be capped, the degree of risk should be matched with the return, and the willingness to bear the risk. Based on the principle of risk sharing, the primary and secondary indexes of risk sharing are constructed, and the evaluation index system of risk sharing is established. The paper combines the qualitative analysis of complete information static game with the quantitative analysis of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and combines the satisfaction degree of share with the objectivity of index of sharing, and obtains the reasonable result of sharing.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283;F272.3

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