房地产开发项目投资风险评价研究
发布时间：2018-09-12 18:51
【摘要】：当今中国经济形式复杂、房地产政策多变，再加上房地产业在中国兴起不到30年，市场上可用于检验的数据不足，缺少有效的实践经验，使得目前对房地产开发投资风险的研究和运用还不深入和完善，已有的风险评价研究方法主要集中在定性分析和主观的经验决策，定量方法的使用相对较少。此外，在开发投资风险的有效识别以及风险应对措施上，也尚缺乏深入的分析与研究。 本文按照房地产开发的全过程，将房地产开发投资风险分为立项决策阶段、前期准备阶段、建设施工阶段，出租销售阶段和后续服务阶段，着重从5个阶段系统分析房地产投资可能出现的所有风险因素，，在此基础上按照风险的动态变化分析原则，对房地产投资进行到某一阶段时的全过程风险进行有效的分析，并运用专家评价等相关理论有效地识别出关键的风险因素；据此建立风险评价指标体系，进而运用多层次动态集成化的模糊综合评价方法对投资风险进行有效的评价；此外，对实际案例进行分析，验证风险评价方法的有效性；最后，根据房地产集成化的动态投资风险综合评价结果，为我国房地产开发项目投资者提供科学合理的风险应对方法和具体的应对措施。
[Abstract]:Today, China's economy is complex, real estate policies are changeable, and the real estate industry has been emerging in China for less than 30 years. There are not enough data available for testing in the market, and there is a lack of effective practical experience. At present, the research and application of investment risk in real estate development is not thorough and perfect. The existing research methods of risk evaluation are mainly focused on qualitative analysis and subjective empirical decision, and the use of quantitative methods is relatively less. In addition, there is a lack of in-depth analysis and research on the effective identification of investment risks and risk response measures. According to the whole process of real estate development, this paper divides the investment risk of real estate development into three stages: project decision stage, early preparation stage, construction stage, rental sale stage and follow-up service stage. On the basis of analyzing all the possible risk factors of real estate investment in five stages, the whole process risk of real estate investment is analyzed effectively according to the principle of dynamic change analysis of risk. The key risk factors are effectively identified by using expert evaluation and other relevant theories, and the index system of risk evaluation is established, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of multi-level dynamic integration is used to evaluate the investment risk effectively. The effectiveness of the risk assessment method is verified by analyzing the actual cases. Finally, according to the integrated dynamic investment risk comprehensive evaluation results of real estate, To provide scientific and reasonable risk response methods and specific measures for investors of real estate development projects in China.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.46
本文编号：2239920
[Abstract]:Today, China's economy is complex, real estate policies are changeable, and the real estate industry has been emerging in China for less than 30 years. There are not enough data available for testing in the market, and there is a lack of effective practical experience. At present, the research and application of investment risk in real estate development is not thorough and perfect. The existing research methods of risk evaluation are mainly focused on qualitative analysis and subjective empirical decision, and the use of quantitative methods is relatively less. In addition, there is a lack of in-depth analysis and research on the effective identification of investment risks and risk response measures. According to the whole process of real estate development, this paper divides the investment risk of real estate development into three stages: project decision stage, early preparation stage, construction stage, rental sale stage and follow-up service stage. On the basis of analyzing all the possible risk factors of real estate investment in five stages, the whole process risk of real estate investment is analyzed effectively according to the principle of dynamic change analysis of risk. The key risk factors are effectively identified by using expert evaluation and other relevant theories, and the index system of risk evaluation is established, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of multi-level dynamic integration is used to evaluate the investment risk effectively. The effectiveness of the risk assessment method is verified by analyzing the actual cases. Finally, according to the integrated dynamic investment risk comprehensive evaluation results of real estate, To provide scientific and reasonable risk response methods and specific measures for investors of real estate development projects in China.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.46
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 许国栋;李心丹;;风险管理理论综述及发展[J];北方经贸;2001年06期
2 陈德强;潘高;;几种项目风险评估方法比较[J];合作经济与科技;2011年18期
本文编号：2239920
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