常州市房地产价格影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-10-20 08:53

【摘要】：住房制度改革以来,房地产行业快速发展,已逐渐发展成为国民经济的支柱性产业,对我国的经济发展起着举足轻重的作用。与此同时,我国房地产业在发展中也出现了诸多问题。部分地区房地产价格出现上涨过快的势头,其上涨幅度远远超出其经济总体的增长水平,呈现出一定程度的非理性成分；部分地区由于房地产过度开发,大量商品房积压,空置率居高不下。考虑到房地产价格对民生和社会稳定的重要影响,研究房地产价格的影响因素无论是对经济政策制订者来说还是对于普通消费者、抵押贷款的金融机构以及房地产开发企业而言,都具有重大的现实意义。本文以房地产价格理论为基础,分别从理论和实证角度来研究常州市房地产价格的影响因素。在总结当前国内外对房地产价格影响因素研究的基础上,对房地产价格形成理论和相关模型进行了归纳,对常州市近年来的市场状况进行了总结,并从需求因素、供给因素、其他因素等方面对影响房价的因素进行了分析。本文以常州市房地产价格和供给、需求等相关数据为基础,基于多元线性回归分析方法,选择了常州市GDP、人口数量、房屋销售面积、房地产开发投资额、建安成本、金融机构贷款余额、上一期房地产价格7个因素,对影响常州市房地产价格的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明上一期房地产价格对常州房地产价格影响最为显著。最后得出了一定结论并提出完善土地供应方式、加快保障房体系建设、吸引外来人口落户常州、加快推行税收制度改革等建议对策。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and has gradually developed into a pillar industry of the national economy, which plays an important role in the economic development of our country. At the same time, China's real estate industry in the development has also appeared a lot of problems. In some regions, real estate prices have shown a tendency to rise too fast, which far exceeds the overall growth level of their economy, showing a certain degree of irrationality; in some regions, due to overdevelopment of real estate, a large number of commercial housing is overstocked. Vacancy rates remain high. Considering the important impact of real estate prices on people's livelihood and social stability, to study the factors affecting real estate prices, whether for economic policy makers or for ordinary consumers, Mortgage financial institutions and real estate development enterprises, are of great practical significance. Based on the theory of real estate price, this paper studies the influencing factors of real estate price in Changzhou City from the angle of theory and demonstration. On the basis of summarizing the research on the influencing factors of real estate price at home and abroad, this paper sums up the theory of real estate price formation and related models, summarizes the market situation of Changzhou in recent years, and analyzes the demand factor and supply factor. Other factors and other aspects of the impact of housing prices were analyzed. Based on the data of real estate price, supply and demand in Changzhou city, and based on the method of multiple linear regression analysis, this paper selects the GDP, population, housing sales area, real estate development investment, and Jian'an cost in Changzhou City. The loan balance of financial institutions and the seven factors of real estate price in the previous period are analyzed empirically the factors that affect the real estate price in Changzhou City. The results show that the last real estate price has the most significant impact on the real estate price in Changzhou. Finally, some conclusions are drawn and some suggestions are put forward, such as perfecting the land supply mode, speeding up the construction of indemnificatory apartment's system, attracting the foreign population to settle in Changzhou, and speeding up the reform of the tax system.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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