中国纺织产业安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-11-22 10:11

【摘要】：在经济全球化的背景下,受到国际市场疲软,需求低迷的影响,我国纺织产业在国际上面临更大的竞争压力,又加上国内生产成本上涨、人民币连续升值、国家对于节能减排、淘汰落后产能的要求不断提高,我国纺织产业受到的安全威胁正在不断加大,纺织产业的安全问题已经成为制约我国民族经济发展的核心问题。本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合方法,构建了我国纺织产业安全评价指标体系,选择了14个二级评价指标,并基于1997年到2012年的指标值,利用时间序列,预测出2013年到2017年的上述指标值。为了使指标权重更能体现纺织产业的特性,本文根据14个指标21年的数据,采用主成分分析法计算出纺织产业各指标值的权重。通过对纺织产业安全状态及各评价指标设置警限范围,计算出各个指标得分,并通过综合评价模型计算出我国纺织产业历年的安全得分。对纺织产业安全进行实证研究的结果表明,我国纺织产业多年来处于“基本安全”的状态,但是2012年以来,我国纺织产业安全度成下降趋势,并且有进一步恶化的趋势,这主要是由于国际竞争力及产业控制力下降造成的,而研发创新能力低是造成纺织产业的国际竞争力不足的主要原因。根据研究结果,本文提出的维护我国纺织产业安全的对策建议包括：改善国内环境、加快自主创新、调整出口结构、加强民族资本控制力等。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, under the influence of weak international market and low demand, China's textile industry is facing greater competitive pressure in the world, coupled with the rising domestic production costs, the continuous appreciation of the RMB, and the state's efforts to save energy and reduce emissions. The requirement of eliminating backward production capacity is increasing and the security threat to our textile industry is increasing. The safety problem of textile industry has become the core problem that restricts the development of national economy in our country. By combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper constructs a safety evaluation index system of China's textile industry, selects 14 second-level evaluation indexes, and makes use of time series based on the index values from 1997 to 2012. The above-mentioned values are predicted for 2013-2017. In order to better reflect the characteristics of textile industry, the weight of every index value of textile industry is calculated by principal component analysis method according to the data of 14 indexes for 21 years. By setting warning limits on the safety state of textile industry and each evaluation index, the scores of each index are calculated, and the safety scores of China's textile industry over the years are calculated by comprehensive evaluation model. The results of the empirical study on the safety of textile industry show that China's textile industry has been in a state of "basic safety" for many years, but since 2012, the degree of safety of China's textile industry has a downward trend and has a trend of further deterioration. This is mainly due to the decline of international competitiveness and industrial control, while the low R & D innovation capability is the main reason for the lack of international competitiveness of textile industry. According to the research results, the countermeasures and suggestions to maintain the safety of China's textile industry include improving the domestic environment, speeding up independent innovation, adjusting the export structure, strengthening the national capital control and so on.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.81;F224

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